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Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:56 GMT

Issued at 920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 128 WTPZ65 KNHC 240322 TCUEP5 Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO... Satellite data indicates that Hurricane John has made landfall along the southern coast of Mexico just to the south-southwest of Marquelia, Mexico in the state of Guerrero at around 915 PM CST (0315 UTC). The maximum sustained winds at landfall are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 959 mb (28.32 inches). This makes John a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 920 PM CST...0320 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 98.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin

...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.3, -100.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:41:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:41:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:41:22 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 967 WTNT44 KNHC 240239 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that there has been little change in the organization of the system since earlier today. Most of the deep convection is over the eastern part of the broad circulation. Animation of proxy-vis GOES images, and radar observations from Grand Cayman Weather Service suggest that the disturbance still does not have a well-defined center of circulation, so the system is kept as a potential tropical cyclone for the time being. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt which is in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area in a few hours to provide a better description of the system's structure along with an updated intensity estimate. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330/5 kt. During the next day or so, the disturbance is expected to turn northwestward along the southern and southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure area. Then, the high is expected to shift eastward while a mid-level trough drops into the central United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. There is good agreement in the track guidance, and the official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical consensus model, HCCA, prediction. This is also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. An upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula has been imparting some southwesterly vertical wind shear over the disturbance. This has probably caused a temporary disruption in development. Dynamical guidance shows this low weakening with time, resulting in a reduction of shear in an environment that is otherwise very conducive for intensification. The system is projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content, which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane strength at landfall. It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 18.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 240238 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 14(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 7(57) X(57) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 11(50) X(50) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 5(55) X(55) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 4(38) X(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 3(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) X(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 1(63) X(63) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 66(67) 1(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 77(77) 2(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 2(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) 10(65) X(65) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 7(66) X(66) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 69(70) 3(73) X(73) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 4(45) X(45) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 74(75) 2(77) X(77) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 1(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 4(60) X(60) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 19(59) X(59) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 22(41) X(41) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 29(49) X(49) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 12(43) X(43) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 13(13) 56(69) 11(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 23(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240238 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 82.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 18.4, -82.4 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240238 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 82.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:34:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 210 WTPZ45 KNHC 240233 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to strengthen this evening with a small tight inner core, which was well depicted in SSMIS microwave images around 00z. Infrared imagery depicts an eye with cold cloud tops near -80 C wrapping around the core. Subjective intensity estimates have continued to increase this evening with data-T values of T5.5 from both SAB and TAFB, with final-T values constrained due to the rapid intensification. Given the most recent satellite depiction and using the data-T values, the intensity for this advisory is increased to 105 kt. John is now a major category 3 hurricane. The hurricane could still strengthen some more over the next couple of hours before it makes landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. After John moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast over the higher terrain with the small inner core quickly deteriorating. The rate of weakening could occur faster than what is currently forecast and the 24 h forecast point is held for continuity inland as it is possible the system could dissipate sooner. John continues to move northward around 7 kt. This current motion should continue as John nears the coast, making landfall in the next couple of hours and will continue to move inland on Tuesday. The cyclone is forecast to slow its forward motion as it moves inland and dissipates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to be a major hurricane as it reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area in the next couple of hours. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. Slow-moving Hurricane John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.3N 98.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240232 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) P MALDONADO 64 51 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 98.8W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next couple of hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next couple hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.8 West. John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico in the next couple of hours. John will continue to move inland over southern Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. John is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible the next couple of hours before John makes landfall. After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken over the high terrain of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 16.3, -98.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240231 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 98.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 23:49:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT