Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 20

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 4 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 20

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 20

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 127.4W ABOUT 1155 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 9 hours ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041127
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 4 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hilda, located more than 1000 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower activity, in association with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine-E, located more than 1600 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, continue to
become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to
be somewhat conducive for development over the next day or so, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight
while the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late
Thursday, further development is not expected as the system is
forecast to move over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development
this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 16

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 There's been little change with the structure of Hilda overnight as deep convection continues to be mostly south of the center due to persistent northeasterly shear. The low-level eye feature in 37 GHz microwave data remains on the latest passes, but it isn't very deep because of the shear. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, plus the UW-CIMSS SATCON, yields 60 kt as the initial wind speed. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, first primarily due to shear, then cool water temperatures and a more stable environment on Wed-Fri. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest forecast is close to the previous NHC advisory and the model consensus. Hilda should decay into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaii. The initial motion estimate, 315/7 kt, is the same as the previous advisory. Hilda is maintaining this motion as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern California. The global models are consistently building this ridge westward over the eastern Pacific during the next several days as a shortwave trough lifts out along 135W, causing Hilda to turn west-northwestward by Thursday. The only significant forecast difference is how quickly the cyclone moves, mostly in the latter stages, with more of the guidance showing a faster motion, perhaps because the models are showing a weaker Hilda being steered by the quicker low-level flow. The new NHC prediction shows that acceleration at long-range as well, near or just behind the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.5N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 8

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 031434 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 25 kt continues across Ignacio, with only small cluster of weakening thunderstorms located west of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the previous advisory, and cloud-top temperatures are now barely -55C. With the shear forecast to continue to increase while Ignacio moves over sub-26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures by this afternoon, regeneration of significant deep convection near the center appears highly unlikely. As a result, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by this evening, if not sooner, with dissipation expected on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is 335/05 kt. As Ignacio weakens further and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone is expected to meander within weak, low-level steering currents until the system dissipates by 36 hours, if not earlier. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected- consensus models, except for the earlier dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 16

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...HILDA FORECAST TO LOSE STRENGTH THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 124.5W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 124.5 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the west-northwest expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Hilda is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday and into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 16

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 031432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 8

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 031432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 8

2 days 6 hours ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 031432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 116.7W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower northward motion is forecast today, followed by slow northeastward or eastward motion tonight before dissipation on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 days 9 hours ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031105
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Ignacio,
located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The associated
shower activity is showing signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional
development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is
likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late
Thursday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
further development by that time is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
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1 year 10 months ago
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