Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

1 hour 32 minutes ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression. The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus. Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72 hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

1 hour 33 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221434 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2

1 hour 33 minutes ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 116.3W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 116.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a gradual turn to the northwest by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

1 hour 33 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221433 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

4 hours 48 minutes ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Five-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Five-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

7 hours 30 minutes ago
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about 600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between 0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By 72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes, respectively, of the track guidance envelope. Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

7 hours 31 minutes ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220835 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 1

7 hours 31 minutes ago
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 116.2W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 116.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast through Tuesday. A weakening trend is expected to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

7 hours 32 minutes ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 220834 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

10 hours 46 minutes ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area located
about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization, and
a tropical depression or a tropical storm is expected to form on
Monday. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward and
remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

16 hours 41 minutes ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite data indicate that the circulation of a low pressure area
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula remains elongated. However, the
associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of
organization, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so. This system is
forecast to move generally northwestward and remain well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

22 hours 38 minutes ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little today in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. This system appears to lack a well-defined
center. However, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
or a tropical storm to form during the next day or so as it moves
generally northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 4 hours ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The
disturbance is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is expected to form during the next
day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move generally
northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 10 hours ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210510
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery indicates that a low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has been steadily increasing and becoming
better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move generally northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining
well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 16 hours ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery indicates that a broad and elongated low pressure
area has formed in association with the disturbed weather located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two.
This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at
around 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
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