Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

7 hours 24 minutes ago

363
ABPZ20 KNHC 192333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E located over the Gulf of California.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development late this weekend. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is expected to form in a couple of days
well to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slow development
of this system is possible late this weekend and early next week
while the disturbance moves nearly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

10 hours 5 minutes ago
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 699 WTPZ44 KNHC 192051 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops, and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30 kt based on this information. The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory. The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. This will not afford much time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of the Sierra-Madre Occidental. The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

10 hours 9 minutes ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 549 FOPZ14 KNHC 192047 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 2

10 hours 9 minutes ago
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 556 WTPZ34 KNHC 192047 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 111.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 111.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). On this forecast track, the depression is expected to move inland over northwestern Mexico late this evening with dissipation on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system moves inland over northwestern Mexico, however steady weakening is forecast thereafter with dissipation expected on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in Baja California and western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

10 hours 10 minutes ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 879 WTPZ24 KNHC 192046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 111.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 111.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

13 hours 12 minutes ago

930
ABPZ20 KNHC 191744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E located over the southern Gulf of
California.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become less organized today. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is expected to form over the weekend
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slow
development of this system is possible early next week while the
system moves nearly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Forecaster Roth/Blake

NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

16 hours 1 minute ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 365 WTPZ44 KNHC 191455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough. This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows curved convective banding features to the east and north of the center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to move inland without significant strengthening. An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain. The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

16 hours 3 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 433 FOPZ14 KNHC 191453 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

16 hours 4 minutes ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 539 WTPZ34 KNHC 191453 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on Thursday. On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move inland over northwestern Mexico this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is forecast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)

16 hours 4 minutes ago
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 26.3, -110.9 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

16 hours 4 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 365 WTPZ24 KNHC 191452 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

17 hours 9 minutes ago

751
ABPZ20 KNHC 191347
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Updated first system to raise probabilities

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Updated: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
low pressure area over the southern Gulf of California has become
better defined this morning. This system could become a tropical
depression later today before moving into northwestern mainland
Mexico tonight. This disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora
through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead
to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the
southwestern United States beginning today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while
it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

19 hours 24 minutes ago

015
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the southern Baja California peninsula northeastward over the
southern and central portions of the Gulf of California are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Although the
thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated
this morning, the system is forecast to move northward into
northwestern mainland Mexico tonight limiting its development
potential. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture
from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and
a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States
beginning today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while
it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 1 hour ago

497
ABPZ20 KNHC 190514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur
southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and
land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance,
and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming
are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the
moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into
the southwestern United States on Wednesday and Thursday, enhancing
rainfall potential and possible flash flooding in that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 7 hours ago

500
ABPZ20 KNHC 182354
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur
southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and
land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance,
and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming
are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance will
likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and
other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next few days.
Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. Some of the moisture
from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the
southwestern United States on Thursday and Friday, enhancing
rainfall potential in that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 13 hours ago

653
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a
few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear
conducive for greater organization, the large size of the system
and interaction with land should inhibit the development potential
of this disturbance. However, this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves near
Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California. Regardless of
development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy
rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern
mainland Mexico over the next several days. The risk of mudlslides
and flash flooding may increase as the system tracks northward into
northwestern Mexico through Thursday. Interests in Baja California
Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of weak low pressure within an elongated trough is
located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system over the
next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Blake

NHC Webmaster
Checked
7 hours 13 minutes ago
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Subscribe to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map feed