Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days a
couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 14

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131452 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane. To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to 20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are estimated to have decreased to 55 kt. The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model consensus solutions. Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be advected northeastward into the south-central United States. Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later today and on Thursday for these areas. Key Messages: 1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 784 FOPZ11 KNHC 131447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 14

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM PAMELA MOVING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 106.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa. All other Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Pamela is accelerating toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue at a faster speed prior to dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast as the center moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are occuring within the Tropical Storm Warning area for the next few hours but should end later this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 14

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA. ALL OTHER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA NOW. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 106.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131159
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Pamela, located inland over west-central Mexico just to the
northwest of Mazatlan.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121152
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Pamela, located less than 300 miles southwest of
Mazatlan, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 9A

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121146 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 109.0W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 109.0 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue today, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Hurricane Pamela (EP1/EP162021)

1 month 3 weeks ago
...PAMELA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... As of 6:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 19.9, -109.0 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 003 WTPZ41 KNHC 120834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 After being relatively steady in strength for the past 12 hours or so, satellite images indicate that Pamela has resumed intensifying. A large area of deep convection has developed during the past several hours, and the center is estimated to be located near the middle of the convective mass. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 4.0/65 kt, and therefore, Pamela has now been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. Pamela has made the expected turn to the north, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/10 kt. The system is now on the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause it to continue moving northward today. However, by tonight, Pamela is forecast to become embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that feature should cause the hurricane to move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central Mexico. After the storm moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its remnants should accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico by the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Even though Pamela has not strengthened as quickly as thought up to this point, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed much. The storm is expected to be in generally favorable conditions to gain strength until it reaches the coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to predict steady to rapid strengthening, and Pamela is likely to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall. After landfall, Pamela is expected to rapidly decay due to the rugged terrain of Mexico, and it should ultimately dissipate over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today an tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.2N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120833 PWSEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 4( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 8 54(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 3 58(61) 32(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 50 X 11(11) 54(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MAZATLAN 64 X 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAN BLAS 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 47 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120833 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLA MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms over portions of Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific waters. This system is expected to
move westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later today
or tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
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2 years 2 months ago
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