Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the
remnants of Narda, which dissipated near the northwest coast of
mainland Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the
system meanders generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011447 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF NARDA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Narda Forecast Discussion Number 13

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Narda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Surface observations and first-light visible satellite imagery show that the surface circulation of Narda has dissipated along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The system is also producing negligible deep convection. Therefore, this is the last advisory. Moisture associated with Narda will continue to lift northward and northeastward across portions of northern Mexico and the U.S. Southern plains through Wednesday. This moisture will contribute to heavy rain, with the threat of flash flooding. For more information about the threat of heavy rains and flooding in the U.S., please see products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.3N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NARDA 12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Narda Forecast Advisory Number 13

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011447 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 110.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Narda Public Advisory Number 13

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Narda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINFALL STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 110.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Narda were located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 110.3 West. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Southern Plains for the next day or two, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds should continue to diminish today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce additional rainfall of up to 2 inches across portions of Chihuahua and Sonora. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of coastal Mexico along the Gulf of California. Although the high surf should decrease during the day, these swells could still cause life-threatening rip current conditions today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Remnants of Narda (EP1/EP162019)

1 month 2 weeks ago
...NARDA DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINFALL STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 27.3, -110.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 11A

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010549 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 109.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located inland near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 109.3 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by late tonight. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)

1 month 2 weeks ago
...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 12:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 26.1, -109.3 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located inland, just north of Los Mochis, Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern
region of the eastern North Pacific within the next day or so.
Slow development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 11

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Passive microwave satellite imagery, especially a recent 2326 UTC SSMI/S pass, continue to show that a small mid-level eye feature has remained close to the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico since the previous advisory, with the center now located just inland near Los Mochis. Earlier scatterometer surface wind data indicated winds to near 40 kt about 40 n mi south of the center, and extrapolation of the position of those winds would place them near the coast now, and justifies lowering the current intensity to 40 kt. Deep convection near the center has also decreased markedly over the past few hours, further suggesting that the intensity has likely decreased. Narda has continued moving northwestward at an unusually fast forward speed, or 325/17 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Narda maintaining a northwestward trajectory around the southwestern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours, with the center remaining inland or very near the coast during that time. The new NHC forecast track is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the tightly packed consensus model tracks. Now that Narda's center has moved inland again over the mountainous terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico, steady weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. However, tropical-storm-force winds are still possible, especially due to funneling along some of the concave-shaped coastlines near Huatabampito and Guaymas before Narda weakens to a depression in 24 hours or so. Terrain interaction should result in the small cyclone becoming a remnant low or dissipating by 48 hours. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through at least Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER NEAR COAST 24H 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 11

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 109.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Altata to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), data from satellites and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located inland near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move near or along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Earlier this evening, a wind gust to at least 39 mph (63 km/h) was measured by a private weather observing site in Culiacan Ejido Canan, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)

1 month 2 weeks ago
...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 25.7, -109.0 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010248 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 21 10(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LOS MOCHIS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Advisory Number 11

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010248 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ALTATA TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTATA TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.0W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.0W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W...OVER WATER NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 10A

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 302354 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 108.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.4 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening, but Narda should begin to weaken late tonight and Tuesday as more of the circulation intersects with land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently measured by a private weather observing site in Paralelo Treinta y Ocho, Mexico, and a gust to 35 mph (56 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Culiacan, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)

1 month 2 weeks ago
...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 25.0, -108.4 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
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1 month 2 weeks ago
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