SPC Jul 22, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 hours 21 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England this afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Ongoing scattered convection across the central Appalachians is expected to persist and intensify towards midday as ample boundary-layer heating occurs from the DE Valley south. However, 12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower compared to 12Z yesterday, and have weaker mid-level lapse rates in the wake of yesterday's extensive convective overturning. This in combination with generally earlier storm development relative to peak late afternoon heating should yield a more modestly unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Weakening flow with height above 500 mb, especially with southwest extent, will result in a lack of mid-level updraft rotation amid small hodographs. Nevertheless, an increasingly broad swath of 30-40 kt 700-mb will support potential for cold-pool dominated multicells capable of strong gusts producing mainly tree damage. ...Mid-South and TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will breakout this afternoon downstream of a pair of MCVs drifting along a southeast-moving cold front. Vertical shear across the region will be weak with only minor MCV enhancement. Wet microbursts yielding localized wind damage should be the main hazard. ...Southern Rockies... Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to the higher terrain, a few of which could drift into the adjacent High Plains. A belt of modest mid-level north/northwesterlies will persist around the Four Corners anticyclone, yielding some threat for marginally severe hail/wind. ...Southeast AZ... 15-20 kt mid-level easterlies may help loosely organize scattered thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain during the late afternoon. Deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk of isolated severe wind gusts until just after dusk. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 hours 21 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England this afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Ongoing scattered convection across the central Appalachians is expected to persist and intensify towards midday as ample boundary-layer heating occurs from the DE Valley south. However, 12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower compared to 12Z yesterday, and have weaker mid-level lapse rates in the wake of yesterday's extensive convective overturning. This in combination with generally earlier storm development relative to peak late afternoon heating should yield a more modestly unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Weakening flow with height above 500 mb, especially with southwest extent, will result in a lack of mid-level updraft rotation amid small hodographs. Nevertheless, an increasingly broad swath of 30-40 kt 700-mb will support potential for cold-pool dominated multicells capable of strong gusts producing mainly tree damage. ...Mid-South and TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms will breakout this afternoon downstream of a pair of MCVs drifting along a southeast-moving cold front. Vertical shear across the region will be weak with only minor MCV enhancement. Wet microbursts yielding localized wind damage should be the main hazard. ...Southern Rockies... Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to the higher terrain, a few of which could drift into the adjacent High Plains. A belt of modest mid-level north/northwesterlies will persist around the Four Corners anticyclone, yielding some threat for marginally severe hail/wind. ...Southeast AZ... 15-20 kt mid-level easterlies may help loosely organize scattered thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain during the late afternoon. Deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk of isolated severe wind gusts until just after dusk. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 hours 15 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A compact upper low will move southeast from Saskatchewan/Manitoba provinces on Thursday/Day 4, and thunderstorms are possible in advance of an associated cold front across portions of the northern Plains/upper Midwest. At this time, enough uncertainty remains regarding the position of the upper low and associated surface features, degree of destabilization and potential influence of an EML, to preclude 15 percent severe probabilities with this outlook. Beyond Day 4, some weakening of the southwest U.S. upper-level high pressure takes place as a belt of stronger WNW flow remains across the northern tier of states. Some potential may exist for organized severe storms on one or more days during this time frame with embedded impulses, however overall daily probabilities appear to be below the threshold for areal delineation. Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 hours 15 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A compact upper low will move southeast from Saskatchewan/Manitoba provinces on Thursday/Day 4, and thunderstorms are possible in advance of an associated cold front across portions of the northern Plains/upper Midwest. At this time, enough uncertainty remains regarding the position of the upper low and associated surface features, degree of destabilization and potential influence of an EML, to preclude 15 percent severe probabilities with this outlook. Beyond Day 4, some weakening of the southwest U.S. upper-level high pressure takes place as a belt of stronger WNW flow remains across the northern tier of states. Some potential may exist for organized severe storms on one or more days during this time frame with embedded impulses, however overall daily probabilities appear to be below the threshold for areal delineation. Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 hours 15 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A compact upper low will move southeast from Saskatchewan/Manitoba provinces on Thursday/Day 4, and thunderstorms are possible in advance of an associated cold front across portions of the northern Plains/upper Midwest. At this time, enough uncertainty remains regarding the position of the upper low and associated surface features, degree of destabilization and potential influence of an EML, to preclude 15 percent severe probabilities with this outlook. Beyond Day 4, some weakening of the southwest U.S. upper-level high pressure takes place as a belt of stronger WNW flow remains across the northern tier of states. Some potential may exist for organized severe storms on one or more days during this time frame with embedded impulses, however overall daily probabilities appear to be below the threshold for areal delineation. Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 hours 36 minutes ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The eastern U.S. upper trough will continue east towards the mid-Atlantic/northeast coast on Wednesday as upper-level high pressure remains entrenched over the southwest states. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains, and a pronounced shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Rockies along the international border. A surface frontal boundary extending from northern FL west through south TX will move little, while a cold front, initially across the northern Rockies, moves east into the northern Plains Wednesday night. ...Northern Plains... The large-scale ridge is forecast to flatten somewhat with the approach of the Pacific Northwest upper trough and monsoon impulses rotating around the upper-level anticyclone. Weak/pockets of moderate instability should develop by afternoon along a pre-frontal trough as diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dew points takes place. Thunderstorms may develop along the pre-frontal trough and the approaching cold front, though an expanding EML and increasing CINH may limit overall coverage. Adequate shear (35-40 kts) will be in place for updraft organization and support at least some risk for severe storms. ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 hours 36 minutes ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The eastern U.S. upper trough will continue east towards the mid-Atlantic/northeast coast on Wednesday as upper-level high pressure remains entrenched over the southwest states. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains, and a pronounced shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Rockies along the international border. A surface frontal boundary extending from northern FL west through south TX will move little, while a cold front, initially across the northern Rockies, moves east into the northern Plains Wednesday night. ...Northern Plains... The large-scale ridge is forecast to flatten somewhat with the approach of the Pacific Northwest upper trough and monsoon impulses rotating around the upper-level anticyclone. Weak/pockets of moderate instability should develop by afternoon along a pre-frontal trough as diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dew points takes place. Thunderstorms may develop along the pre-frontal trough and the approaching cold front, though an expanding EML and increasing CINH may limit overall coverage. Adequate shear (35-40 kts) will be in place for updraft organization and support at least some risk for severe storms. ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

8 hours 36 minutes ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The eastern U.S. upper trough will continue east towards the mid-Atlantic/northeast coast on Wednesday as upper-level high pressure remains entrenched over the southwest states. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains, and a pronounced shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Rockies along the international border. A surface frontal boundary extending from northern FL west through south TX will move little, while a cold front, initially across the northern Rockies, moves east into the northern Plains Wednesday night. ...Northern Plains... The large-scale ridge is forecast to flatten somewhat with the approach of the Pacific Northwest upper trough and monsoon impulses rotating around the upper-level anticyclone. Weak/pockets of moderate instability should develop by afternoon along a pre-frontal trough as diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dew points takes place. Thunderstorms may develop along the pre-frontal trough and the approaching cold front, though an expanding EML and increasing CINH may limit overall coverage. Adequate shear (35-40 kts) will be in place for updraft organization and support at least some risk for severe storms. ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 31 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND SOUTHERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move toward the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. Ahead of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen across much of Oregon and Washington and even into northern California and Nevada. Where this mid-level flow intersects the low-level dry air mass, critical fire weather conditions are possible. These conditions are most likely near the junction of California, Nevada, and Oregon. Across this region, daytime mixing is expected to increase surface winds to 20 to 30 mph. In addition, surface relative humidity is expected to drop to the 10 to 15 percent range. Strong winds are also expected farther north along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and through the Columbia River Gorge, but the marine influenced air mass should keep relative humidity high enough to mitigate the fire weather threat in these areas. Thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies, however, forecast PWAT values and questions about storm coverage are a bit too high to warrant a dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 31 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND SOUTHERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move toward the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. Ahead of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen across much of Oregon and Washington and even into northern California and Nevada. Where this mid-level flow intersects the low-level dry air mass, critical fire weather conditions are possible. These conditions are most likely near the junction of California, Nevada, and Oregon. Across this region, daytime mixing is expected to increase surface winds to 20 to 30 mph. In addition, surface relative humidity is expected to drop to the 10 to 15 percent range. Strong winds are also expected farther north along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and through the Columbia River Gorge, but the marine influenced air mass should keep relative humidity high enough to mitigate the fire weather threat in these areas. Thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies, however, forecast PWAT values and questions about storm coverage are a bit too high to warrant a dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 31 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND SOUTHERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move toward the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. Ahead of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen across much of Oregon and Washington and even into northern California and Nevada. Where this mid-level flow intersects the low-level dry air mass, critical fire weather conditions are possible. These conditions are most likely near the junction of California, Nevada, and Oregon. Across this region, daytime mixing is expected to increase surface winds to 20 to 30 mph. In addition, surface relative humidity is expected to drop to the 10 to 15 percent range. Strong winds are also expected farther north along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and through the Columbia River Gorge, but the marine influenced air mass should keep relative humidity high enough to mitigate the fire weather threat in these areas. Thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies, however, forecast PWAT values and questions about storm coverage are a bit too high to warrant a dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 32 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through central California this afternoon on the western edge of a ridge centered over the Rockies. This shortwave will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms across portions of western Nevada, northeast California, southern Oregon, and southern Idaho. ...Northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southeast Oregon... A combination of downslope flow and strengthening surface winds due to daytime mixing may lead to elevated fire weather conditions from northeast California into southeast Oregon. Winds are expected to be in the 15 to 20 mph range with relative humidity in the 13 to 20 percent range. ...Western Nevada... Downslope flow is expected to develop in portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties in western Nevada this afternoon. Expect relative humidity around 10 to 15 percent and winds in the 15 to 20 mph range in this area. Isolated critical conditions may be possible in a few locations here, but the localized area and the short duration precludes the need for a critical fire weather area. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Western Nevada into southern Idaho... Dry thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours across much of northern Nevada and into southern Idaho. PWAT values are expected to be in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range across this area with a very dry sub-cloud layer. Do not expect a lot of lightning from this activity, but expect the start efficiency to be high considering very little if any accumulating rainfall is expected from this convection. ..Bentley.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 32 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through central California this afternoon on the western edge of a ridge centered over the Rockies. This shortwave will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms across portions of western Nevada, northeast California, southern Oregon, and southern Idaho. ...Northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southeast Oregon... A combination of downslope flow and strengthening surface winds due to daytime mixing may lead to elevated fire weather conditions from northeast California into southeast Oregon. Winds are expected to be in the 15 to 20 mph range with relative humidity in the 13 to 20 percent range. ...Western Nevada... Downslope flow is expected to develop in portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties in western Nevada this afternoon. Expect relative humidity around 10 to 15 percent and winds in the 15 to 20 mph range in this area. Isolated critical conditions may be possible in a few locations here, but the localized area and the short duration precludes the need for a critical fire weather area. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Western Nevada into southern Idaho... Dry thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours across much of northern Nevada and into southern Idaho. PWAT values are expected to be in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range across this area with a very dry sub-cloud layer. Do not expect a lot of lightning from this activity, but expect the start efficiency to be high considering very little if any accumulating rainfall is expected from this convection. ..Bentley.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 32 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through central California this afternoon on the western edge of a ridge centered over the Rockies. This shortwave will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms across portions of western Nevada, northeast California, southern Oregon, and southern Idaho. ...Northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southeast Oregon... A combination of downslope flow and strengthening surface winds due to daytime mixing may lead to elevated fire weather conditions from northeast California into southeast Oregon. Winds are expected to be in the 15 to 20 mph range with relative humidity in the 13 to 20 percent range. ...Western Nevada... Downslope flow is expected to develop in portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties in western Nevada this afternoon. Expect relative humidity around 10 to 15 percent and winds in the 15 to 20 mph range in this area. Isolated critical conditions may be possible in a few locations here, but the localized area and the short duration precludes the need for a critical fire weather area. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Western Nevada into southern Idaho... Dry thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours across much of northern Nevada and into southern Idaho. PWAT values are expected to be in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range across this area with a very dry sub-cloud layer. Do not expect a lot of lightning from this activity, but expect the start efficiency to be high considering very little if any accumulating rainfall is expected from this convection. ..Bentley.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 hours 9 minutes ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly east across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an expansive anticyclone remains centered near the Four Corners region. A southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the Delmarva peninsula across the central Gulf coast and south Texas by Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and lifts offshore along the front. A very moist air mass will remain in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. ...Southern/eastern NC and SC... Cloud cover will likely be substantial across the mid-Atlantic region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary given the very moist air mass characterized by PW values of around 2 inches. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow with the amplifying upper trough will reside in this area and contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms, especially where localized breaks in the clouds augment surface-based instability. Clusters of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon with a risk for damaging downburst winds. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 hours 9 minutes ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly east across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an expansive anticyclone remains centered near the Four Corners region. A southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the Delmarva peninsula across the central Gulf coast and south Texas by Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and lifts offshore along the front. A very moist air mass will remain in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. ...Southern/eastern NC and SC... Cloud cover will likely be substantial across the mid-Atlantic region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary given the very moist air mass characterized by PW values of around 2 inches. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow with the amplifying upper trough will reside in this area and contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms, especially where localized breaks in the clouds augment surface-based instability. Clusters of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon with a risk for damaging downburst winds. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 hours 9 minutes ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly east across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an expansive anticyclone remains centered near the Four Corners region. A southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the Delmarva peninsula across the central Gulf coast and south Texas by Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and lifts offshore along the front. A very moist air mass will remain in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. ...Southern/eastern NC and SC... Cloud cover will likely be substantial across the mid-Atlantic region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary given the very moist air mass characterized by PW values of around 2 inches. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow with the amplifying upper trough will reside in this area and contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms, especially where localized breaks in the clouds augment surface-based instability. Clusters of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon with a risk for damaging downburst winds. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more

SPC Jul 22, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 hours 9 minutes ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly east across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an expansive anticyclone remains centered near the Four Corners region. A southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the Delmarva peninsula across the central Gulf coast and south Texas by Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and lifts offshore along the front. A very moist air mass will remain in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. ...Southern/eastern NC and SC... Cloud cover will likely be substantial across the mid-Atlantic region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary given the very moist air mass characterized by PW values of around 2 inches. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow with the amplifying upper trough will reside in this area and contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms, especially where localized breaks in the clouds augment surface-based instability. Clusters of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon with a risk for damaging downburst winds. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Bunting.. 07/22/2019 Read more
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