SPC MD 854

1 hour 18 minutes ago
MD 0854 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210... Valid 241006Z - 241130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and gusty outflow winds will continue through the morning. As these storms move into western Arkansas, a new watch may be necessary. DISCUSSION...Long-lived bow echo continues to move across central and northeast Oklahoma along the 850-millibar theta-e gradient, which loosely corresponds to the most-unstable CAPE gradient. Given most-unstable CAPE values of 2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 40 knots ahead of the parent mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and an even better CAPE reservoir to the southwest, all indications are that the ongoing MCS will exit WW209 later this morning. Additionally, warm-air advection thunderstorms across east-central and northeast Oklahoma continue to persist. Large hail and gusty winds remain possible with these storms. On their current trajectory, these storms will exit WW209 in the next 1-2 hours, which will likely require a new watch. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35619755 35699689 36029644 36539644 36309553 36059442 35729318 35149264 34679304 34539382 34519520 34659637 35039733 35619755 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211

2 hours ago
WW 211 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 241030Z - 241600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Arkansas Far eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 530 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized convective line will continue to quickly progress east/southeastward from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas this morning, with additional strong to severe storms preceding this line of storms. Damaging winds will be the primary concern but some hail is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Fort Smith AR to 45 miles east of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210 Status Reports

2 hours 9 minutes ago
WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE OKC TO 35 SE CQB TO 30 W MKO TO 15 SSE TUL TO 20 SSE BVO TO 15 N BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854. ..MARSH..06/24/18 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC021-061-063-077-079-091-097-101-105-121-131-135-145-241140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA PITTSBURG ROGERS SEQUOYAH WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210

2 hours 9 minutes ago
WW 210 SEVERE TSTM OK 240825Z - 241500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 325 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized and intense convective line, with history of measured 65+ mph wind gusts, will continue generally southeastward across north-central and eastern Oklahoma through the early morning hours. Pockets of wind damage can be expected along with a few instances of hail. A brief line-embedded tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northeast of Poteau OK to 35 miles northwest of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210 Status Reports

2 hours 52 minutes ago
WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CQB TO 10 N CQB TO 40 W TUL TO 15 ESE PNC TO 10 N PNC. ..MARSH..06/24/18 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC021-037-061-063-077-079-081-091-097-101-105-107-109-111-113- 117-121-125-131-133-135-143-145-147-241040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 Status Reports

2 hours 54 minutes ago
WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW OKC TO 25 WNW CQB. ..MARSH..06/24/18 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC039-129-241040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER ROGER MILLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 Status Reports

2 hours 54 minutes ago
WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW OKC TO 25 WNW CQB. ..MARSH..06/24/18 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC039-129-241040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER ROGER MILLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Jun 24, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

3 hours 29 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast from D4 to D5, with a cold front likely focusing thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible especially on D4 across the OH Valley where instability will be strongest. At this time, it appears the threat may be marginal/low-end given the deamplifying wave aloft. To the west, a large area of strong instability will build across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley D5 through D7, and there is potential for a few severe MCSs mainly across the Dakotas and MN. However, predictability for this warm advection pattern is currently too low to outlook a specific area/corridor for severe wind. Read more

SPC Jun 24, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

3 hours 29 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast from D4 to D5, with a cold front likely focusing thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible especially on D4 across the OH Valley where instability will be strongest. At this time, it appears the threat may be marginal/low-end given the deamplifying wave aloft. To the west, a large area of strong instability will build across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley D5 through D7, and there is potential for a few severe MCSs mainly across the Dakotas and MN. However, predictability for this warm advection pattern is currently too low to outlook a specific area/corridor for severe wind. Read more

SPC Jun 24, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

3 hours 29 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast from D4 to D5, with a cold front likely focusing thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible especially on D4 across the OH Valley where instability will be strongest. At this time, it appears the threat may be marginal/low-end given the deamplifying wave aloft. To the west, a large area of strong instability will build across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley D5 through D7, and there is potential for a few severe MCSs mainly across the Dakotas and MN. However, predictability for this warm advection pattern is currently too low to outlook a specific area/corridor for severe wind. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 Status Reports

4 hours 52 minutes ago
WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GAG TO 35 SSW AVK TO 25 WNW END TO 25 NNW END TO 40 ESE P28 TO 30 E P28 TO 30 ENE P28. ..MARSH..06/24/18 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC077-191-240840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARPER SUMNER OKC003-011-039-043-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-119-129-240840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE PAYNE ROGER MILLS TXC211-240840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 Status Reports

4 hours 52 minutes ago
WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GAG TO 35 SSW AVK TO 25 WNW END TO 25 NNW END TO 40 ESE P28 TO 30 E P28 TO 30 ENE P28. ..MARSH..06/24/18 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC077-191-240840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARPER SUMNER OKC003-011-039-043-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-119-129-240840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE PAYNE ROGER MILLS TXC211-240840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209

4 hours 52 minutes ago
WW 209 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 240250Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and south-central Kansas Northwest and north-central Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Line of strong to isolated severe storms across west-central and southwest Kansas should intensify as it moves southeast across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Scattered severe wind gusts appear likely. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Liberal KS to 40 miles east of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 206...WW 207...WW 208... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Grams Read more

SPC MD 853

4 hours 56 minutes ago
MD 0853 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Areas affected...east-central Arkansas...southwest Tennessee...and northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240733Z - 240900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible through the morning. The limited spatial coverage of thunderstorms should preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing within a zone of 850-millibar theta-e advection. The overall environment in which the storms are developing is characterized by most-unstable CAPE around 2000 J/kg and is on the southern fringes of a belt of deep-layer shear around 30-40 knots. Although the overall environment will be supportive of isolated supercell-like structures capable of large hail, weak forcing and the overall limited coverage should preclude the need for a watch. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34659245 35129253 35759185 35829009 35748911 35468851 34618859 34358964 34429110 34659245 Read more

SPC Jun 24, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

5 hours ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday across eastern Iowa, much of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Missouri, and eastern Kansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will from the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, providing cooling aloft and enhanced midlevel flow. A warm front will lift north across WI and MI, with a cold front extending from a surface low from southern MN into eastern KS by 00Z. Upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the low, resulting in ample instability for severe storms. A southwesterly low-level jet will increase lift and moisture transport, and increase low-level shear especially near the low and warm front. A few supercells are possible, along with tornado potential. Supercells producing large hail are also likely especially extending southwest across MO and KS where instability will be greatest. One complicating factor to this forecast will be the potential for early day storms which will affect air mass quality. In addition, while southern parts of the risk area will be very unstable, upper heights will rise with veering winds aloft as the trough departs. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2018 Read more

SPC Jun 24, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

5 hours ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday across eastern Iowa, much of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Missouri, and eastern Kansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will from the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, providing cooling aloft and enhanced midlevel flow. A warm front will lift north across WI and MI, with a cold front extending from a surface low from southern MN into eastern KS by 00Z. Upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the low, resulting in ample instability for severe storms. A southwesterly low-level jet will increase lift and moisture transport, and increase low-level shear especially near the low and warm front. A few supercells are possible, along with tornado potential. Supercells producing large hail are also likely especially extending southwest across MO and KS where instability will be greatest. One complicating factor to this forecast will be the potential for early day storms which will affect air mass quality. In addition, while southern parts of the risk area will be very unstable, upper heights will rise with veering winds aloft as the trough departs. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2018 Read more

SPC Jun 24, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

5 hours ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday across eastern Iowa, much of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Missouri, and eastern Kansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will from the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, providing cooling aloft and enhanced midlevel flow. A warm front will lift north across WI and MI, with a cold front extending from a surface low from southern MN into eastern KS by 00Z. Upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the low, resulting in ample instability for severe storms. A southwesterly low-level jet will increase lift and moisture transport, and increase low-level shear especially near the low and warm front. A few supercells are possible, along with tornado potential. Supercells producing large hail are also likely especially extending southwest across MO and KS where instability will be greatest. One complicating factor to this forecast will be the potential for early day storms which will affect air mass quality. In addition, while southern parts of the risk area will be very unstable, upper heights will rise with veering winds aloft as the trough departs. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2018 Read more
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