SPC Jan 17, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 hours 52 minutes ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning is well-described within the prior outlook; with clearing/modest heating ongoing across Nevada, and spreading into western Utah at this time, limited risk for gusty/damaging winds locally remains evident. ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 hours 52 minutes ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning is well-described within the prior outlook; with clearing/modest heating ongoing across Nevada, and spreading into western Utah at this time, limited risk for gusty/damaging winds locally remains evident. ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 hours 52 minutes ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning is well-described within the prior outlook; with clearing/modest heating ongoing across Nevada, and spreading into western Utah at this time, limited risk for gusty/damaging winds locally remains evident. ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

11 hours 52 minutes ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning is well-described within the prior outlook; with clearing/modest heating ongoing across Nevada, and spreading into western Utah at this time, limited risk for gusty/damaging winds locally remains evident. ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

13 hours 10 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Elevated and locally critical conditions remain possible along/ahead of the cold front as it pushes south-southeast across portions of eastern New Mexico/West Texas. This corridor of drier air/stronger northwest winds will slide southeastward with the front providing a moving, relatively narrow spatial/temporal window for these potential elevated/locally critical conditions to occur. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... ...Portions of Southwest Texas... A trough over the Rockies will shift over the Plains on Friday. A deepening lee cyclone will track east across the southern/central Plains. The tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low, coupled with strong deep layer west/northwest flow will result in windy conditions across the southern High Plains. A cold front will track south across the central Plains during through the afternoon and into the southern Plains by evening. Ahead of the front, a dry airmass will persist across parts of southeast NM into southwest TX. However, cloud cover could limit heating and prevent lower RH values from materializing. Currently, the best overlap of marginally low RH values from 18-25 percent and borderline critical west winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) appears to be across parts of southwest TX/Big Bend vicinity. Fuel conditions are not overly impressive for large fires and may temper the overall threat. As such, only elevated fire weather conditions will be highlighted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

13 hours 10 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Elevated and locally critical conditions remain possible along/ahead of the cold front as it pushes south-southeast across portions of eastern New Mexico/West Texas. This corridor of drier air/stronger northwest winds will slide southeastward with the front providing a moving, relatively narrow spatial/temporal window for these potential elevated/locally critical conditions to occur. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... ...Portions of Southwest Texas... A trough over the Rockies will shift over the Plains on Friday. A deepening lee cyclone will track east across the southern/central Plains. The tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low, coupled with strong deep layer west/northwest flow will result in windy conditions across the southern High Plains. A cold front will track south across the central Plains during through the afternoon and into the southern Plains by evening. Ahead of the front, a dry airmass will persist across parts of southeast NM into southwest TX. However, cloud cover could limit heating and prevent lower RH values from materializing. Currently, the best overlap of marginally low RH values from 18-25 percent and borderline critical west winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) appears to be across parts of southwest TX/Big Bend vicinity. Fuel conditions are not overly impressive for large fires and may temper the overall threat. As such, only elevated fire weather conditions will be highlighted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

13 hours 10 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Elevated and locally critical conditions remain possible along/ahead of the cold front as it pushes south-southeast across portions of eastern New Mexico/West Texas. This corridor of drier air/stronger northwest winds will slide southeastward with the front providing a moving, relatively narrow spatial/temporal window for these potential elevated/locally critical conditions to occur. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... ...Portions of Southwest Texas... A trough over the Rockies will shift over the Plains on Friday. A deepening lee cyclone will track east across the southern/central Plains. The tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low, coupled with strong deep layer west/northwest flow will result in windy conditions across the southern High Plains. A cold front will track south across the central Plains during through the afternoon and into the southern Plains by evening. Ahead of the front, a dry airmass will persist across parts of southeast NM into southwest TX. However, cloud cover could limit heating and prevent lower RH values from materializing. Currently, the best overlap of marginally low RH values from 18-25 percent and borderline critical west winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) appears to be across parts of southwest TX/Big Bend vicinity. Fuel conditions are not overly impressive for large fires and may temper the overall threat. As such, only elevated fire weather conditions will be highlighted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

13 hours 10 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Elevated and locally critical conditions remain possible along/ahead of the cold front as it pushes south-southeast across portions of eastern New Mexico/West Texas. This corridor of drier air/stronger northwest winds will slide southeastward with the front providing a moving, relatively narrow spatial/temporal window for these potential elevated/locally critical conditions to occur. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... ...Portions of Southwest Texas... A trough over the Rockies will shift over the Plains on Friday. A deepening lee cyclone will track east across the southern/central Plains. The tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low, coupled with strong deep layer west/northwest flow will result in windy conditions across the southern High Plains. A cold front will track south across the central Plains during through the afternoon and into the southern Plains by evening. Ahead of the front, a dry airmass will persist across parts of southeast NM into southwest TX. However, cloud cover could limit heating and prevent lower RH values from materializing. Currently, the best overlap of marginally low RH values from 18-25 percent and borderline critical west winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) appears to be across parts of southwest TX/Big Bend vicinity. Fuel conditions are not overly impressive for large fires and may temper the overall threat. As such, only elevated fire weather conditions will be highlighted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

14 hours 7 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger elevated storms -- potentially producing marginally severe hail -- will be possible Friday evening and overnight across the Arklatex vicinity. ...Synopsis... A large upper vortex will linger over eastern Canada Day 2/Friday, with cyclonic flow extending southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern-stream trough is progged to gradually amplify as it shifts east-southeastward out of the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains. In conjunction with the trough, a surface low will likewise emerge from the southern Rockies, and should advance in an eastward arc across the southern Plains -- eventually reaching the lower Mississippi Valley/Delta Region by the end of the period. A trailing cold front will shift across the southern Plains, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico late in the period. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK/southwest AR/northwest LA... Persistent low-level theta-e advection is expected Friday, as southerly/southwesterly flow increases ahead of the advancing upper trough. While the boundary layer should remain largely/slightly stable through the period across most of the area, gradual/limited steepening of lapse rates aloft will permit eventual development of 500 to 1000 j/kg elevated CAPE -- maximized across the Arklatex area and vicinity. Warm advection showers -- and perhaps eventually a few weak thunderstorms -- will likely evolve and eventually spread eastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley after dark. While low-level shear will be sufficient for rotation in stronger updrafts, the expected, slightly elevated nature of this convection and the weak CAPE suggests minimal risk of even a brief/weak tornado. Farther west, behind the warm-advection-induced convection, stronger QG forcing will evolve as the upper trough nears. Here, a few stronger, elevated storms may evolve across the Arklatex region during the evening and into the overnight hours, aided by the steeper lapse rates/greater CAPE in conjunction with amply strong flow aloft. As a result, some hail -- possibly reaching or exceeding severe levels -- will be possible with the strongest of these cells. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

14 hours 7 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger elevated storms -- potentially producing marginally severe hail -- will be possible Friday evening and overnight across the Arklatex vicinity. ...Synopsis... A large upper vortex will linger over eastern Canada Day 2/Friday, with cyclonic flow extending southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern-stream trough is progged to gradually amplify as it shifts east-southeastward out of the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains. In conjunction with the trough, a surface low will likewise emerge from the southern Rockies, and should advance in an eastward arc across the southern Plains -- eventually reaching the lower Mississippi Valley/Delta Region by the end of the period. A trailing cold front will shift across the southern Plains, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico late in the period. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK/southwest AR/northwest LA... Persistent low-level theta-e advection is expected Friday, as southerly/southwesterly flow increases ahead of the advancing upper trough. While the boundary layer should remain largely/slightly stable through the period across most of the area, gradual/limited steepening of lapse rates aloft will permit eventual development of 500 to 1000 j/kg elevated CAPE -- maximized across the Arklatex area and vicinity. Warm advection showers -- and perhaps eventually a few weak thunderstorms -- will likely evolve and eventually spread eastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley after dark. While low-level shear will be sufficient for rotation in stronger updrafts, the expected, slightly elevated nature of this convection and the weak CAPE suggests minimal risk of even a brief/weak tornado. Farther west, behind the warm-advection-induced convection, stronger QG forcing will evolve as the upper trough nears. Here, a few stronger, elevated storms may evolve across the Arklatex region during the evening and into the overnight hours, aided by the steeper lapse rates/greater CAPE in conjunction with amply strong flow aloft. As a result, some hail -- possibly reaching or exceeding severe levels -- will be possible with the strongest of these cells. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

14 hours 7 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger elevated storms -- potentially producing marginally severe hail -- will be possible Friday evening and overnight across the Arklatex vicinity. ...Synopsis... A large upper vortex will linger over eastern Canada Day 2/Friday, with cyclonic flow extending southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern-stream trough is progged to gradually amplify as it shifts east-southeastward out of the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains. In conjunction with the trough, a surface low will likewise emerge from the southern Rockies, and should advance in an eastward arc across the southern Plains -- eventually reaching the lower Mississippi Valley/Delta Region by the end of the period. A trailing cold front will shift across the southern Plains, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico late in the period. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK/southwest AR/northwest LA... Persistent low-level theta-e advection is expected Friday, as southerly/southwesterly flow increases ahead of the advancing upper trough. While the boundary layer should remain largely/slightly stable through the period across most of the area, gradual/limited steepening of lapse rates aloft will permit eventual development of 500 to 1000 j/kg elevated CAPE -- maximized across the Arklatex area and vicinity. Warm advection showers -- and perhaps eventually a few weak thunderstorms -- will likely evolve and eventually spread eastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley after dark. While low-level shear will be sufficient for rotation in stronger updrafts, the expected, slightly elevated nature of this convection and the weak CAPE suggests minimal risk of even a brief/weak tornado. Farther west, behind the warm-advection-induced convection, stronger QG forcing will evolve as the upper trough nears. Here, a few stronger, elevated storms may evolve across the Arklatex region during the evening and into the overnight hours, aided by the steeper lapse rates/greater CAPE in conjunction with amply strong flow aloft. As a result, some hail -- possibly reaching or exceeding severe levels -- will be possible with the strongest of these cells. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

14 hours 7 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger elevated storms -- potentially producing marginally severe hail -- will be possible Friday evening and overnight across the Arklatex vicinity. ...Synopsis... A large upper vortex will linger over eastern Canada Day 2/Friday, with cyclonic flow extending southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern-stream trough is progged to gradually amplify as it shifts east-southeastward out of the Rockies and into the central and southern Plains. In conjunction with the trough, a surface low will likewise emerge from the southern Rockies, and should advance in an eastward arc across the southern Plains -- eventually reaching the lower Mississippi Valley/Delta Region by the end of the period. A trailing cold front will shift across the southern Plains, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico late in the period. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK/southwest AR/northwest LA... Persistent low-level theta-e advection is expected Friday, as southerly/southwesterly flow increases ahead of the advancing upper trough. While the boundary layer should remain largely/slightly stable through the period across most of the area, gradual/limited steepening of lapse rates aloft will permit eventual development of 500 to 1000 j/kg elevated CAPE -- maximized across the Arklatex area and vicinity. Warm advection showers -- and perhaps eventually a few weak thunderstorms -- will likely evolve and eventually spread eastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley after dark. While low-level shear will be sufficient for rotation in stronger updrafts, the expected, slightly elevated nature of this convection and the weak CAPE suggests minimal risk of even a brief/weak tornado. Farther west, behind the warm-advection-induced convection, stronger QG forcing will evolve as the upper trough nears. Here, a few stronger, elevated storms may evolve across the Arklatex region during the evening and into the overnight hours, aided by the steeper lapse rates/greater CAPE in conjunction with amply strong flow aloft. As a result, some hail -- possibly reaching or exceeding severe levels -- will be possible with the strongest of these cells. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

15 hours 5 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

15 hours 5 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

15 hours 5 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

15 hours 5 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

15 hours 5 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with isolated thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nevada into western Utah during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern NV and Western UT... Guidance differs greatly with the degree and eastern extent of boundary-layer heating with the NAM substantially cooler than the RAP, given a pervasive swath of ongoing cloudiness. However, mid-level drying yielding clearing is evident in satellite imagery across western NV and this should shift eastward into the afternoon. In conjunction with mid-level cold-air advection, the setup should foster increasing destabilization during the afternoon via delayed boundary-layer heating and lapse rates aloft becoming very steep. Mid-level DCVA associated with the portion of the shortwave trough shifting from northern CA into the Great Basin and convergence along a cold front should yield a broken band of showers with embedded thunderstorms by late afternoon from the NV/UT/ID border area south-southwest into east-central NV. 30-40 kt effective shear could support modestly organized convective structures. Where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles can develop, strong to isolated severe wind gusts may occur as activity spreads east before waning this evening. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/17/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

16 hours 2 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave ridge over the Four Corners will shift east and deamplify today. This will result in the development of a weak surface trough across the southern High Plains, though the pressure gradient will be modest. In addition to the weak surface pressure gradient, midlevel westerly flow will remain light through 00z, and surface winds generally will be less than 15 mph. Though winds will be weak, a very dry airmass will persist, aided in part by weak downslope flow. As a result, RH values will fall into the 20-30 percent range across parts of eastern NM into western TX. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur on brief/spotty basis, unfavorable fuel conditions, with ERC values below normal, will limit overall threat. Further east, dry conditions will persist across parts of northern into central FL and RH values in the 30-40 percent range are expected once again. However, wind speeds less than 10 mph will largely preclude fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Checked
6 hours 54 minutes ago
Severe Storms
Storm Prediction Center
Subscribe to Severe Storms feed