Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas... A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas... A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas... A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas... A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the central High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with strengthening mid-level flow across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains this morning will advance into the central Plains by this afternoon and push a cold front south across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, a cold front, associated with the mid-level trough across the northern Great Lakes, will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front across the central High Plains may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Terrain driven storms are anticipated across much of the central Rockies. A few storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain, and with support from low-level upslope flow, maintain themselves along the Front Range as they move south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and around 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will support the potential for isolated supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm motions around 350 degrees and storm formation expected along the mountains and immediate foothills will result in a very narrow area of risk along the Front Range from southeast Wyoming to central Colorado. Slightly stronger instability across southeast Colorado and the potential for some clustering of storms supports a slightly wider marginal extending into this region. ...Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the central High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with strengthening mid-level flow across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains this morning will advance into the central Plains by this afternoon and push a cold front south across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, a cold front, associated with the mid-level trough across the northern Great Lakes, will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front across the central High Plains may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Terrain driven storms are anticipated across much of the central Rockies. A few storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain, and with support from low-level upslope flow, maintain themselves along the Front Range as they move south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and around 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will support the potential for isolated supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm motions around 350 degrees and storm formation expected along the mountains and immediate foothills will result in a very narrow area of risk along the Front Range from southeast Wyoming to central Colorado. Slightly stronger instability across southeast Colorado and the potential for some clustering of storms supports a slightly wider marginal extending into this region. ...Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the central High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with strengthening mid-level flow across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains this morning will advance into the central Plains by this afternoon and push a cold front south across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, a cold front, associated with the mid-level trough across the northern Great Lakes, will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front across the central High Plains may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Terrain driven storms are anticipated across much of the central Rockies. A few storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain, and with support from low-level upslope flow, maintain themselves along the Front Range as they move south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and around 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will support the potential for isolated supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm motions around 350 degrees and storm formation expected along the mountains and immediate foothills will result in a very narrow area of risk along the Front Range from southeast Wyoming to central Colorado. Slightly stronger instability across southeast Colorado and the potential for some clustering of storms supports a slightly wider marginal extending into this region. ...Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the central High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with strengthening mid-level flow across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains this morning will advance into the central Plains by this afternoon and push a cold front south across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, a cold front, associated with the mid-level trough across the northern Great Lakes, will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front across the central High Plains may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Terrain driven storms are anticipated across much of the central Rockies. A few storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain, and with support from low-level upslope flow, maintain themselves along the Front Range as they move south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and around 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will support the potential for isolated supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm motions around 350 degrees and storm formation expected along the mountains and immediate foothills will result in a very narrow area of risk along the Front Range from southeast Wyoming to central Colorado. Slightly stronger instability across southeast Colorado and the potential for some clustering of storms supports a slightly wider marginal extending into this region. ...Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the central High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with strengthening mid-level flow across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains this morning will advance into the central Plains by this afternoon and push a cold front south across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, a cold front, associated with the mid-level trough across the northern Great Lakes, will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front across the central High Plains may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Terrain driven storms are anticipated across much of the central Rockies. A few storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain, and with support from low-level upslope flow, maintain themselves along the Front Range as they move south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and around 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will support the potential for isolated supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm motions around 350 degrees and storm formation expected along the mountains and immediate foothills will result in a very narrow area of risk along the Front Range from southeast Wyoming to central Colorado. Slightly stronger instability across southeast Colorado and the potential for some clustering of storms supports a slightly wider marginal extending into this region. ...Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur this evening and into tonight from parts of the northern and central High Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and separately across parts of Arizona. Damaging winds and occasional hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Midwest... A cluster of storms across northern Wisconsin and the UP has now moved into Canada and is weakening on the eastern periphery of the better instability. In the wake of this activity, a few storms have developed along a cold front moving through northern Minnesota with a few isolated showers/storms developing ahead of it. Have adjusted the thunder line west to account for these storms and will keep the marginal across southeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where instability remains. This threat will likely only continue for a few more hours before a cooling boundary layer stabilizes the area. ...Central Plains into the central High Plains... The earlier cluster of storms across eastern Nebraska moved south and weakened as it moved into a more stable airmass across southern Nebraska. However, an additional storm developed across east-central Nebraska where 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is present. This threat may remain for a few more hours before eventual nocturnal stabilization ends the threat. Storms across Wyoming and northeast Colorado have been relatively weak thus far. However, as heights continue to fall across the region, expect these storms to maintain with additional storm development also possible. Weak to moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of shear will support the potential for isolated strong storms capable of large hail or severe wind gusts this evening and into the early overnight hours. ..Bentley.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur this evening and into tonight from parts of the northern and central High Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and separately across parts of Arizona. Damaging winds and occasional hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Midwest... A cluster of storms across northern Wisconsin and the UP has now moved into Canada and is weakening on the eastern periphery of the better instability. In the wake of this activity, a few storms have developed along a cold front moving through northern Minnesota with a few isolated showers/storms developing ahead of it. Have adjusted the thunder line west to account for these storms and will keep the marginal across southeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where instability remains. This threat will likely only continue for a few more hours before a cooling boundary layer stabilizes the area. ...Central Plains into the central High Plains... The earlier cluster of storms across eastern Nebraska moved south and weakened as it moved into a more stable airmass across southern Nebraska. However, an additional storm developed across east-central Nebraska where 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is present. This threat may remain for a few more hours before eventual nocturnal stabilization ends the threat. Storms across Wyoming and northeast Colorado have been relatively weak thus far. However, as heights continue to fall across the region, expect these storms to maintain with additional storm development also possible. Weak to moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of shear will support the potential for isolated strong storms capable of large hail or severe wind gusts this evening and into the early overnight hours. ..Bentley.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur this evening and into tonight from parts of the northern and central High Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and separately across parts of Arizona. Damaging winds and occasional hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Midwest... A cluster of storms across northern Wisconsin and the UP has now moved into Canada and is weakening on the eastern periphery of the better instability. In the wake of this activity, a few storms have developed along a cold front moving through northern Minnesota with a few isolated showers/storms developing ahead of it. Have adjusted the thunder line west to account for these storms and will keep the marginal across southeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where instability remains. This threat will likely only continue for a few more hours before a cooling boundary layer stabilizes the area. ...Central Plains into the central High Plains... The earlier cluster of storms across eastern Nebraska moved south and weakened as it moved into a more stable airmass across southern Nebraska. However, an additional storm developed across east-central Nebraska where 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is present. This threat may remain for a few more hours before eventual nocturnal stabilization ends the threat. Storms across Wyoming and northeast Colorado have been relatively weak thus far. However, as heights continue to fall across the region, expect these storms to maintain with additional storm development also possible. Weak to moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of shear will support the potential for isolated strong storms capable of large hail or severe wind gusts this evening and into the early overnight hours. ..Bentley.. 08/23/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 22 23:25:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 22 23:25:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Areas affected...the Front Range and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221949Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is forecast after about 21Z, with storms moving east/southeast off the higher terrain. Localized marginal hail or strong gusts may occur. DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues this afternoon in a post-frontal regime with areas of heating. North to northeast surface winds have brought mid to upper 50s F dewpoints into the area, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Visible satellite imagery shows CU fields developing, though partially obscured by mid and high level clouds. These clouds are associated with a minor disturbance rounding the upper ridge, suggesting some degree of ascent aloft. As convection over the higher terrain grows later this afternoon, modest northwest flow aloft and peak heating should allow for a few cells to persist into the plains. Temperatures aloft are not particularly cool, nor is shear very strong. As such, marginal hail is possible. An eventual aggregation of storms/outflows may develop closer to 00Z, with perhaps locally strong to severe gusts. Overall coverage and intensity of severe is not expected to necessitate a watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38650578 39630559 40350524 40360487 40140444 39660428 39190419 38720433 38350460 38210508 38250548 38650578 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An unseasonably deep, longwave trough will continue to traverse the Midwest and eastern CONUS through at least mid next week, while an upper ridge slowly begins to breakdown over the Southwest. A strong cold front will surge southward early next week over the eastern half of CONUS, making it as far south as northern FL by Day 6/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase along this front through next week. ...Day 3/Sunday... Increasing monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge is expected to slowly shift northward from southern CA into more of the Great Basin and OR. At least one mid-level perturbation and orographic ascent within this moisture plume, combined with elevated instability, will aid in the development of a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Although some of this region will have experienced an increase in fuel moisture via recent rainfall, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will remain possible especially where ERC percentiles are still high across portions of the Great Basin. ...Day 4/Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on the western and northwestern fringes of the ridge, as a Pacific shortwave trough approaches. Mid to upper-level heights will slowly fall over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as this occurs. Forecast profiles suggest moisture will be deep enough by this time for most of this activity to be wet, although a few isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible along and east of the Cascades where lower PWATs are anticipated. A low probability area was considered here, but confidence in the coverage of dry strikes is not high enough at the moment. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An unseasonably deep, longwave trough will continue to traverse the Midwest and eastern CONUS through at least mid next week, while an upper ridge slowly begins to breakdown over the Southwest. A strong cold front will surge southward early next week over the eastern half of CONUS, making it as far south as northern FL by Day 6/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase along this front through next week. ...Day 3/Sunday... Increasing monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge is expected to slowly shift northward from southern CA into more of the Great Basin and OR. At least one mid-level perturbation and orographic ascent within this moisture plume, combined with elevated instability, will aid in the development of a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Although some of this region will have experienced an increase in fuel moisture via recent rainfall, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will remain possible especially where ERC percentiles are still high across portions of the Great Basin. ...Day 4/Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on the western and northwestern fringes of the ridge, as a Pacific shortwave trough approaches. Mid to upper-level heights will slowly fall over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as this occurs. Forecast profiles suggest moisture will be deep enough by this time for most of this activity to be wet, although a few isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible along and east of the Cascades where lower PWATs are anticipated. A low probability area was considered here, but confidence in the coverage of dry strikes is not high enough at the moment. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An unseasonably deep, longwave trough will continue to traverse the Midwest and eastern CONUS through at least mid next week, while an upper ridge slowly begins to breakdown over the Southwest. A strong cold front will surge southward early next week over the eastern half of CONUS, making it as far south as northern FL by Day 6/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase along this front through next week. ...Day 3/Sunday... Increasing monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge is expected to slowly shift northward from southern CA into more of the Great Basin and OR. At least one mid-level perturbation and orographic ascent within this moisture plume, combined with elevated instability, will aid in the development of a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Although some of this region will have experienced an increase in fuel moisture via recent rainfall, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will remain possible especially where ERC percentiles are still high across portions of the Great Basin. ...Day 4/Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on the western and northwestern fringes of the ridge, as a Pacific shortwave trough approaches. Mid to upper-level heights will slowly fall over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as this occurs. Forecast profiles suggest moisture will be deep enough by this time for most of this activity to be wet, although a few isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible along and east of the Cascades where lower PWATs are anticipated. A low probability area was considered here, but confidence in the coverage of dry strikes is not high enough at the moment. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An unseasonably deep, longwave trough will continue to traverse the Midwest and eastern CONUS through at least mid next week, while an upper ridge slowly begins to breakdown over the Southwest. A strong cold front will surge southward early next week over the eastern half of CONUS, making it as far south as northern FL by Day 6/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase along this front through next week. ...Day 3/Sunday... Increasing monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge is expected to slowly shift northward from southern CA into more of the Great Basin and OR. At least one mid-level perturbation and orographic ascent within this moisture plume, combined with elevated instability, will aid in the development of a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Although some of this region will have experienced an increase in fuel moisture via recent rainfall, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will remain possible especially where ERC percentiles are still high across portions of the Great Basin. ...Day 4/Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on the western and northwestern fringes of the ridge, as a Pacific shortwave trough approaches. Mid to upper-level heights will slowly fall over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as this occurs. Forecast profiles suggest moisture will be deep enough by this time for most of this activity to be wet, although a few isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible along and east of the Cascades where lower PWATs are anticipated. A low probability area was considered here, but confidence in the coverage of dry strikes is not high enough at the moment. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An unseasonably deep, longwave trough will continue to traverse the Midwest and eastern CONUS through at least mid next week, while an upper ridge slowly begins to breakdown over the Southwest. A strong cold front will surge southward early next week over the eastern half of CONUS, making it as far south as northern FL by Day 6/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase along this front through next week. ...Day 3/Sunday... Increasing monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge is expected to slowly shift northward from southern CA into more of the Great Basin and OR. At least one mid-level perturbation and orographic ascent within this moisture plume, combined with elevated instability, will aid in the development of a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Although some of this region will have experienced an increase in fuel moisture via recent rainfall, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will remain possible especially where ERC percentiles are still high across portions of the Great Basin. ...Day 4/Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on the western and northwestern fringes of the ridge, as a Pacific shortwave trough approaches. Mid to upper-level heights will slowly fall over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as this occurs. Forecast profiles suggest moisture will be deep enough by this time for most of this activity to be wet, although a few isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible along and east of the Cascades where lower PWATs are anticipated. A low probability area was considered here, but confidence in the coverage of dry strikes is not high enough at the moment. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more