Severe Storms

WW 0521 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0521 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 17 17:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more