Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains. ...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest... The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon. Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for more details. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information. ...Northern High Plains vicinity... Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the previous discussion below for more details. ...East-central MN into northwest WI... Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated convection may develop later tonight across the same general region, but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Four Corners Region/central Rockies... Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally, with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado through the afternoon. ...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas... Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage should steadily increase into the evening toward the western Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail potential will become more common this evening, with localized severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western and central Dakotas. ...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin... Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front. Read more

MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121902Z - 122130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across the region, posing an isolated hail and damaging wind threat. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a midlevel impulse lifting off to the north, mostly clear skies have led to surface heating and destabilization across southeastern Arizona. Surface dewpoints mixing into the low 60s F are still supporting over 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the sufficient sufficient deep-layer shear (~30 knots), some storm organization is possible, including transient supercell structures and storm splitting, given the relatively long, straight hodographs (per 18Z Tucson sounding). The strongest storms will pose a threat of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33411111 33761077 33831006 33280913 32340906 31380902 31400945 31400985 31401069 31381106 32381140 33181121 33411111 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Day 2 Update... No changes needed to previous forecast (see below). A mid-level trough over the Intermountain West and afternoon destabilization will promote showers and thunderstorms over the Northern High Plains and Northern and Central Rockies Saturday. Problematic fire activity from new ignitions has been minimal even with abundant lightning over the Northern Rockies over the last several days. More concentrated convection is expected across the Colorado River Basin, bringing abundant lightning but also wetting thunderstorm cores, with additional rain mitigating fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as a preceding upper trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). The net result will be another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Rockies toward the Four Corners region in association to the widespread lifting of a buoyant airmass with the upper trough. These storms will likely be more wet than dry, and will traverse areas that may see appreciable rainfall accumulations on Day 1, potentially dampening fuels in the process. While an instance or two of lightning-induced wildfire ignition cannot be ruled out, the coverage of such occurrences should be sparse at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 Read more