Severe Storms

MD 1693 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and extreme southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519... Valid 162301Z - 170000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will persist into this evening, with the more favorable corridor for storm clustering with hail/wind into southeast Colorado. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms are ongoing across eastern CO within the upslope flow regime on the cool side of the synoptic front from western KS into the OK Panhandle and extreme northeast NM. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s with mid-upper 50s dewpoints, contributing to MUCAPE near and above 2000 J/kg. Midlevel flow is a little stronger with northward extent, but easterly low-level flow is resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to maintain the potential for supercells. Stronger surface heating will be maintained into southeast CO in advance of storms moving east of the higher terrain, which is where the greater potential for storm clustering with hail/wind will reside. ..Thompson.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37720512 38410538 39340484 40070480 40960541 41300530 41340473 40800372 40320291 39290284 38240276 37490271 37220275 37070310 37080381 37200444 37720512 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LAF TO 15 SSE SBN TO 20 ESE BEH TO 10 W JXN. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 520 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-085-087-099-113-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL NOBLE MIC023-027-149-170040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH CASS ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 520 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 162150Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently affecting northeast Illinois will track eastward across the watch area through the early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of South Bend IN to 35 miles north northwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern Missouri into extreme northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162149Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled boundary, with the potential for isolated strong-severe gusts and marginally severe hail. Limited magnitude and duration of the threat suggests that a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway immediately east of Kansas City, with other deepening cumulus along a stalled boundary near I-70. Surface temperatures in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s have largely eliminated convective inhibition and additional thunderstorm development is probable along the boundary/convergence zone the next couple of hours. This corridor is along the southern fringe of 25-30 kt midlevel flow, and deep-layer vertical shear is likewise modest and largely confined to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Still, large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support strong updrafts, while precipitation loading and downdraft potential will support the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal given limited storm organization/duration, and a watch appears unlikely. ..Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39039196 39159282 39169356 39139451 38979628 39009667 39279674 39429639 39619492 39689425 39689336 39649291 39579231 39529216 39449195 39279181 39039196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 518 SEVERE TSTM IL IN LM 161735Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in a north-south band and move east across the Watch. A couple of the stronger thunderstorms may acquire transient supercell characteristics. Scattered damaging gusts are the primary hazard, but an isolated risk for large hail will accompany the stronger storms and a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Rockford IL to 20 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 517 TORNADO WI LM 161715Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intensifying band of thunderstorms will continue to shift eastward across the Watch area this afternoon. Embedded within the band of storms will likely include several supercells with an attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Green Bay WI to 10 miles south southwest of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...northern Indiana...far southern Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162128Z - 162230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms with a history of producing severe winds will move downstream of WW518. A new watch may be needed to cover this threat. DISCUSSION...A fast moving line of thunderstorms continues eastward moving out of eastern Illinois near southern Lake Michigan into northern Indiana. This line has a history of producing gusts 50-65 mph. The environment downstream remains favorably unstable and warm, though deep layer shear profiles are meager. A new watch downstream of WW518 may be warranted to cover the risk downstream. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41268734 42108712 42428671 42618622 42638581 42478546 42248517 41738492 41398492 40848495 40458506 40348557 40258605 40298656 40338706 40458744 41268734 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more