Severe Storms

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 519 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 162040Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing near Interstate 25 will continue to intensify this afternoon and move eastward across the Watch. Appreciably strong deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells and severe multicells across mainly the northern half of the Watch. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms, but a tornado is possible. Severe thunderstorms posing primarily a severe-wind risk are possible later this evening as storms congeal into a likely cluster across southeast Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Cheyenne WY to 25 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeast Utah...northwest Colorado and southwest Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161841Z - 162045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage/intensity early this afternoon. Damaging gust are possible, along with small hail. DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was underway across the higher terrain of the Western Slope and southern WY. Focused largely across the Uintas and northern CO ranges, diurnal heating and local terrain circulations should continue to support convective development through the afternoon. Broad-scale ascent should also increase over the next few hours as shortwave troughing passes overhead. As thunderstorms expand toward scattered coverage, a few of the storms should become more organized and move off the higher terrain. 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow will favor a mix of clusters and supercells. Very steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging outflow gusts with the more intense storms. However some hail will also be possible, especially with any weakly rotating cells. While it may take some time for the stronger cells to organize, outflow should gradually strengthen and allow for storms to move off the higher terrain this afternoon. Overall buoyancy is modest but sufficient to support stronger storm clusters and some severe risk. Given the limited buoyancy a WW is not expected, though severe trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 42180884 41780671 40340601 39940695 39250961 39811094 40531137 41441026 42180884 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MMO TO 25 SSW RAC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-091-093-097-105-197-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-162140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-162140- CW Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JVL TO 20 ENE VOK TO 35 W CWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-039-047-055-059-061-071-077-079-087- 089-097-101-105-117-127-131-133-135-137-139-141-162140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE ROCK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1685 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Central/Southern OH into Far Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161740Z - 161945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across central/southern Ohio and far northern Kentucky this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with a few of these thunderstorm clusters. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across central/southern OH and far northern KY over the next few hours as the well-defined MCV currently over far southeast IN progresses northeastward into the moist and destabilizing downstream airmass. Deep-layer flow across the region is modest, resulting in a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, some enhanced low/mid-level southwesterlies will accompany the MCV, which could contribute to a few loosely organized, northeastward-progressing clusters capable of isolated damaging gusts. Limited severe coverage is expected to preclude the need for watch. ..Mosier/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... LAT...LON 40048474 40848401 41008225 40288168 38668224 38128386 38938467 40048474 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more