Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-061-063-099-125-100340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA KSC023-055-067-071-075-081-093-109-171-181-187-193-199-203- 100340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE FINNEY GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LOGAN SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 092050Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and early evening across the watch area. Large hail will be the main concern, along with gusty winds in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Burlington CO to 30 miles north of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 34015. ...Hart Read more

MD 2056 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 100026Z - 100230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Hail threat is expected to persist with storms this evening, along with some wind risk. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms are shifting slowly southeast across the central High Plains this evening. Strong boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in this activity attaining severe levels as lapse rates are seasonally steep across this region. However, over the next few hours, nocturnal cooling will lead to increasing CINH and surface-based updrafts should being to struggle as they decouple from the boundary layer. 00z sounding from DDC exhibits this trend with weak inhibition noted around 1km. Even so, LLJ is forecast to increase after sunset and this should aid one or more elevated thunderstorm clusters that should propagate across western KS. Hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40000304 39380072 37350072 37980304 40000304 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible over the central and southern High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from far eastern CO and western KS into the TX Panhandle. The most likely area for continued severe storms producing hail and strong gusts appears to be over western KS, beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, and currently within instability axis. Increasing winds around 850 mb may further support storms through the evening with southeastward-moving cells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2056. ..Jewell.. 09/10/2025 Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-061-063-099-125-100140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA KSC023-055-067-071-075-081-093-109-171-181-187-193-199-203- 100140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE FINNEY GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LOGAN SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-061-063-099-125-100140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA KSC023-055-067-071-075-081-093-109-171-181-187-193-199-203- 100140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE FINNEY GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LOGAN SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092249Z - 100015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginal hail may occur late this afternoon and early evening. DISCUSSION...A few storms have slowly intensified in northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle as they move east into greater low-level moisture. This is primarily in response to a weak shortwave trough moving through the upper-level ridge in the High Plains. Effective shear of 30-40 kts (stronger to the east) will support isolated, marginally organized convection. The overall lack of moisture and large-scale lift will limit storm intensity. Increasing MLCIN--evident on the 18Z observed LBF sounding--to the east should also keep the spatial extent of the stronger activity limited. The well-mixed boundary layer could promote isolated severe winds. Storms that can maintain a discrete mode could produce marginally severe hail as well. Overall, activity should begin to gradually diminish by sunset as CIN increases further. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40510302 41200328 41920295 42270213 42040147 41550101 40690137 40510159 40510302 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092249Z - 100015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginal hail may occur late this afternoon and early evening. DISCUSSION...A few storms have slowly intensified in northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle as they move east into greater low-level moisture. This is primarily in response to a weak shortwave trough moving through the upper-level ridge in the High Plains. Effective shear of 30-40 kts (stronger to the east) will support isolated, marginally organized convection. The overall lack of moisture and large-scale lift will limit storm intensity. Increasing MLCIN--evident on the 18Z observed LBF sounding--to the east should also keep the spatial extent of the stronger activity limited. The well-mixed boundary layer could promote isolated severe winds. Storms that can maintain a discrete mode could produce marginally severe hail as well. Overall, activity should begin to gradually diminish by sunset as CIN increases further. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40510302 41200328 41920295 42270213 42040147 41550101 40690137 40510159 40510302 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/09/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-061-063-099-125-092340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA KSC023-055-067-071-075-081-093-109-171-181-187-193-199-203- 092340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE FINNEY GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LOGAN SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 092050Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and early evening across the watch area. Large hail will be the main concern, along with gusty winds in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Burlington CO to 30 miles north of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 34015. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 9 22:34:11 UTC 2025.

MD 2054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NM INTO PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2054 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Far eastern NM into parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092037Z - 092230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible late this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Storm initiation is underway across Roosevelt County, NM as of 2030 UTC, with increasing cumulus noted farther north. In addition to the ongoing development, continued strong heating and weakening of MLCINH may eventually result in isolated storm development farther east into parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains, near a weak surface confluence zone. Initial high-based convection closer to the NM/TX border would pose a threat of localized strong to severe gusts within the deeply mixed environment. While deep-layer shear is relatively modest, isolated hail cannot be ruled out given the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE of around 1000-1500 J/kg. Any storms that develop or move farther east could pose a somewhat greater hail threat, given the presence of richer low-level moisture and greater MLCAPE. Coverage of the severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated, rendering the need for a watch uncertain in this area. However, within the northwesterly flow regime, only a slight increase in deep-layer shear compared to what is currently observed/analyzed could support potential for a supercell or two, and observational trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need for watch issuance. ..Dean/Hart.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33520354 34840359 36070326 36650315 36550252 35400149 35170144 34100164 33460186 33320267 33520354 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more