Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West. ...Northern and central Plains... South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT. Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk for hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear, organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. ...Four Corners and Western Slope... A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West. ...Northern and central Plains... South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT. Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk for hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear, organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. ...Four Corners and Western Slope... A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West. ...Northern and central Plains... South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT. Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk for hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear, organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. ...Four Corners and Western Slope... A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West. ...Northern and central Plains... South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT. Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk for hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear, organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. ...Four Corners and Western Slope... A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West. ...Northern and central Plains... South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT. Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk for hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear, organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. ...Four Corners and Western Slope... A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West. ...Northern and central Plains... South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT. Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk for hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear, organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. ...Four Corners and Western Slope... A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will make little eastward progress on Thursday. The closed upper low will also broaden through the period. Overall, mid-level winds will become less intense across the eastern Great Basin. Furthermore, the surface trough in the High Plains will weaken and shift east, reducing the surface pressure gradient as well. ...Southern/Eastern Great Basin... Despite the weakening trends in the mid-level winds, dry and breezy conditions will still be possible during the afternoon. Models suggest some potential for higher RH values than on Wednesday. This will likely be due to slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some upper-level clouds. Surface winds may reach 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% can be expected. Fire weather conditions will be locally elevated as ERCs continue to show below average fuel dryness. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the West will continue its slow eastward progress into the Great Basin. The mid-level jet will intensify within the southern and eastern Great Basin. Cooler air aloft and marginal mid-level ascent will also promote some convection in Washington. ...Washington... A pocket of drier fuels exists in the Columbia Basin and nearby vicinity. Recent lightning activity has led to fire starts. Given the current convection in Oregon moving north and west around the upper-low, some lightning activity can be expected early this morning. Additional thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon and perhaps again overnight tonight. However, those storms may pose a lesser lightning ignition threat given increasing PWAT values through the period. ...Eastern Nevada/western Utah... Strong surface winds of 15-25 mph will overspread parts of the Great Basin beneath the mid-level jet. RH could fall near 10% locally, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the potential for critical meteorological conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are expected despite the unfavorable to marginal fuel receptiveness in these areas. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains. Severe potential is generally low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper high over western TX. At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions. Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast. Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK, but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow. Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these storms could produce at least small hail given such cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025 Read more