Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z A belt of enhanced low-level flow will develop across portions of northeast Utah, northwest Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Here winds around 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) will develop during the afternoon, in the presence of relative humidity around 10 percent. The result will be critical meteorological conditions. However, NFDRSv4 derived ERC percentiles are still only in the 60-80 percent range. Thus have opted to go with an Elevated area instead of Critical. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the periphery of the Elevated area in the Pacific Northwest to bring into better alignment with the latest guidance. ..Marsh.. 07/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic flow will remain present over the Northwest on Monday. A cold front will accompany the trough passage in the Northwest and will progress into the Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Surface winds behind the cold front will likely reach 15-20 mph. For areas near the terrain, 20-25 mph could also occur. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and some mid/high-level cloud cover will be possible as well. Due to those factors, RH will likely only be marginally dry. Most areas will reach around 20% during the afternoon. Despite winds being stronger on a broader scale, only elevated fire weather conditions are expected due marginal RH. ...Great Basin... The shortwave trough moving through northern California late Sunday will continue into the northern Basin on Monday. This may promote isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. These storms will be fast moving and produce limited precipitation. With fuels only marginally dry at best from northern Nevada into southern Idaho, the threat of lightning ignitions should remain low. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly winds will increase across southern and central Nevada. Current guidance shows 10-20% RH will occur during the afternoon. The strongest winds, however, will occur over central Nevada where fuels are not critically dry. Locally elevated conditions will remain possible in southern Nevada where fuels are cured. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BOS TO 20 N BOS TO 35 NNW PWM. WW 497 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 161900Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 ..GLEASON..07/16/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-161900- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK MAC009-161900- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX NHC015-017-161900- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging hail and wind gusts are most likely from the Black Hills area southeastward into northern Nebraska late Monday. Other strong wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible from parts of Kentucky and Tennessee northeastward into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain situated from Ontario into the Great Lakes, providing cool air aloft and a cyclonic flow regime from Mid and Upper MS Valley into the Northeast. To the west, a shortwave trough will affect parts of the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with strong westerly flow aloft. East of there, a northwest flow regime will exist over the northern and central Plains, with embedded waves developing from eastern WY/MT into SD/NE in association with areas of storms late. At the surface, dry air will exist behind a cold front which will extend from northern KS/MO into northern IL/IN, with a plume of mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of it. Westerly flow around 850 mb will maintain an unstable air mass from KY/TN into OH and western PA, beneath moderate mid to upper level flow. ...Northern Plains... Ahead of the upper wave and near a deepening surface trough, storms are likely to develop over southeast MT and northern WY during the afternoon, moving southeast across SD through late evening and continuing into east-central/northeast NE overnight. Initial activity is likely to produce large hail with long hodographs and steep lapse rates aloft, although some of the activity may be elevated. Even so, substantial, penetrating downdrafts may yield wind damage as well, especially as storm mode transitions to MCS overnight into NE. ...KY/TN into western PA... Areas of storms may be ongoing Monday morning over parts of western KY and TN, and these would move into a destabilizing air mass during the day. As such, a few damaging gusts may occur assuming stronger instability develops ahead this potential activity. Forecast soundings show modest deep-layer shear around 30 kt, but steep lapse rates and sufficient mean wind to produce mobile cold pools and locally damaging winds. In addition, sporadic marginal hail will be possible with the more cellular activity given cool air aloft. Farther east, additional activity is possible from WV into eastern OH and western PA where heating will steep low-level lapse rates, and colder air aloft will exist near the midlevel temperature gradient. Marginal hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 15 22:15:24 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 15 22:15:24 UTC 2023.

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-152240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-152240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-152240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-152240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 495 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 152010Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and early evening with a risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. The potential for significant damaging winds, possibly in excess of 75 mph, will exist as storm coverage increases later this afternoon. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of Trinidad CO to 60 miles southwest of Tucumcari NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. ...ArklaTex into northern TX... A plume of deep moisture with PWAT over 2.00" remains across the area, and visible imagery shows signs of convection developing from southeast OK into southwest AR. Given strong instability, locally strong downbursts or marginal hail will be possible, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded into southwest AR. Farther west into northern TX, strong heating south of the area of cloudiness is leading to increasing CU fields, and isolated downbursts will be possible with any storms that form in this area as well. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 1566. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM. Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary, in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A small significant hail area has been introduced where initial supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast... Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Central Nebraska... Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE. Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns regarding the degree of elevated instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. ...ArklaTex into northern TX... A plume of deep moisture with PWAT over 2.00" remains across the area, and visible imagery shows signs of convection developing from southeast OK into southwest AR. Given strong instability, locally strong downbursts or marginal hail will be possible, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded into southwest AR. Farther west into northern TX, strong heating south of the area of cloudiness is leading to increasing CU fields, and isolated downbursts will be possible with any storms that form in this area as well. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 1566. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM. Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary, in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A small significant hail area has been introduced where initial supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast... Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Central Nebraska... Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE. Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns regarding the degree of elevated instability. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track. No changes were made. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Northwest on Sunday. At the surface a lee trough will develop to the east of the Cascades. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Mid-level winds will increase through the day across Oregon/Washington. The mid-level jet, however, will not overspread the region until late Sunday into Monday morning. During the afternoon, surface winds will increase in the lee of the Cascades as the surface trough deepens. Winds will be the strongest within the Cascade gaps and Columbia Gorge. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 mph (locally higher) with winds becoming lighter into the Columbia Basin itself. RH will fall to 15-20%. A few hours of elevated fire weather are expected within the terrain features with locally elevated conditions possible within the Basin. ...Northern Nevada... With mid-level flow increasing from the south/southwest, a period of marginally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible within northern Nevada. Fuels are not critically dry at present and, given the relatively weak winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track. No changes were made. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Northwest on Sunday. At the surface a lee trough will develop to the east of the Cascades. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Mid-level winds will increase through the day across Oregon/Washington. The mid-level jet, however, will not overspread the region until late Sunday into Monday morning. During the afternoon, surface winds will increase in the lee of the Cascades as the surface trough deepens. Winds will be the strongest within the Cascade gaps and Columbia Gorge. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 mph (locally higher) with winds becoming lighter into the Columbia Basin itself. RH will fall to 15-20%. A few hours of elevated fire weather are expected within the terrain features with locally elevated conditions possible within the Basin. ...Northern Nevada... With mid-level flow increasing from the south/southwest, a period of marginally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible within northern Nevada. Fuels are not critically dry at present and, given the relatively weak winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ...Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ...Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ...Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ...Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 Read more

MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...493... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...493... Valid 142200Z - 142330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491, 493 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely extend into central/east-central Missouri. There is some uncertainty how far east the organized bowing segment will progress. DISCUSSION...Long radar/satellite loops indicate outflow from prior convection has reached near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. A cluster of convection has developed north-northwest of St. Louis in a weakly sheared environment. Outflow has quickly spread away from this cluster. The well-organized bowing structure (with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage) now in the eastern Kansas City suburbs should continue to the east likely just south of the primary outflow boundary where the airmass has at least slowly tried to recover this afternoon. The overall eastern extent of the severe threat with the bowing segment is somewhat in doubt given the outflow from the weak convection that may spread southward ahead of it. Shear should at least modestly increase with time given the approach of an upstream shortwave trough. The thermodynamic environment and storm-scale organization trends will likely be the modulators of the severe threat duration. ..Wendt.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38409427 38549452 38749447 39069428 39269406 39219372 39189320 39059239 38889137 38529092 38279104 38159163 38179290 38259388 38409427 Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 493 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 142155Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Central and Southern Missouri Northern and Central Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple intense clusters of storms will continue to move southeastward into and across northern Oklahoma and central/southern Missouri, and eventually northwest Arkansas this evening. Corridors of wind damage and potentially significant-strength wind gusts can be expected, especially across northern Oklahoma and perhaps southwest Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 50 miles east southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491...WW 492... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-017-037-057-067-071-073-085-095-099-103-107-109- 111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-155-161-167-169-171-175-177-179- 187-195-201-203-142240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL CASS DE KALB FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX LA SALLE LEE LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC031-045-057-061-087-097-103-105-111-113-115-139-163-183- 142240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 492 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 142050Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and northern Illinois Extreme northeast Missouri Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east across the watch area through early this evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary severe weather risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east of Quincy IL to 40 miles northwest of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142100Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will increase across the central and southern High Plains during the next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a surface boundary/wind shift extending east-northeastward from northeastern NM into southwestern KS, where it intersects a southward-moving outflow boundary associated with an MCS farther east. In the near-term, an isolated thunderstorm is attempting to deepen along the wind shift in northeastern NM, where a long/straight hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates will support supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts. Farther east, boundary-layer cumulus is deepening across parts of southwestern KS into the OK Panhandle ahead of the southward-advancing outflow, and additional thunderstorm development is possible here during the next few hours. Similar to northeastern NM, a moderately unstable air mass and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will support organized storms including supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Convective evolution is somewhat unclear across this area, though current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35770211 35940291 36220366 36570386 36980378 37260337 37760251 38070170 38070127 37950084 36959963 36639939 36159939 35819970 35710044 35770211 Read more