Severe Storms

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JVL TO 20 SE OSH TO 35 N GRB. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-055-059-061-071-079-089-101-117-127-131-133-162340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI Read more

WW 517 TORNADO WI LM 161715Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intensifying band of thunderstorms will continue to shift eastward across the Watch area this afternoon. Embedded within the band of storms will likely include several supercells with an attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Green Bay WI to 10 miles south southwest of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...northern Indiana...far southern Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162128Z - 162230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms with a history of producing severe winds will move downstream of WW518. A new watch may be needed to cover this threat. DISCUSSION...A fast moving line of thunderstorms continues eastward moving out of eastern Illinois near southern Lake Michigan into northern Indiana. This line has a history of producing gusts 50-65 mph. The environment downstream remains favorably unstable and warm, though deep layer shear profiles are meager. A new watch downstream of WW518 may be warranted to cover the risk downstream. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41268734 42108712 42428671 42618622 42638581 42478546 42248517 41738492 41398492 40848495 40458506 40348557 40258605 40298656 40338706 40458744 41268734 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more