Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

MD 1696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of central/northern Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170000Z - 170100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving east may pose a risk for strong to severe wind through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across Lake Michigan and portions of northern/central Michigan. Overall, this activity is remaining below severe limits. CAM guidance suggest that some re-intensification could occur as they move inland over the next couple of hours. The air mass across Michigan remains favorably unstable, with sufficient deep layer shear for organization around 30-40 kts. It is uncertain if storms will pose a more organized severe threat moving inland. Trends will be monitored across this region but a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43708651 44228640 44848595 45348546 45688465 45508388 45128355 44558356 44018352 43408406 43118468 42938605 43708651 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...southern Illinois...southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162328Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for severe wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues eastward across southern Illinois and southern Indiana, with occasional stronger segments producing occasional gusts 40-50 mph. This is ongoing within a very unstable air mass, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg. However, deep layer shear for organization remains weak. Occasional severe outflow winds will be possible. However, the threat is likely to remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38838905 39388821 40108715 40078619 39698588 38798606 38288678 38108745 38208845 38408909 38838905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
PI Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
PI Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
PI Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
PI Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 520 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 162150Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently affecting northeast Illinois will track eastward across the watch area through the early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of South Bend IN to 35 miles north northwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Central and southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162229Z - 170000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along and to the immediate cool side of the front is expected through late evening. Isolated downburst winds and large hail may occur, but limited storm organization suggests a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 90s along a stalled front across central/southwest KS, where strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition coincide. Ascent atop the frontal surface should support scattered thunderstorms through late evening, where steep midlevel lapse rates will favor some potential for isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. However, storm intensity/duration should both be limited by relatively weak vertical shear (only modest enhancement to low-level shear on the cool side of the front). Thus, a watch will likely not be needed. ..Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 39129825 39099780 38889759 38729775 38649830 38289934 37530017 37650034 37900036 38270022 38559987 38949907 39129825 Read more

MD 1695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MICHIGAN...NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Michigan...northeastern Indiana...northwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162343Z - 170115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind may linger downstream of WW520. Overall, the threat is likely to diminish and downstream watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving across northern Indiana has shown signs of weakening over the last hour. A couple of reports around 40-55 mph were noted earlier. The downstream air mass remains unstable but deep layer shear is overall marginal. CAM guidance generally suggests this line will continue to weaken with loss of daytime heating. A downstream watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 41668612 42088564 42238461 42098405 41728360 41428349 40978379 40738393 40568402 40308470 40298527 40598590 40688609 41668612 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more