Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more