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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...Kentucky...Far Southeast Illinois...Far Southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240556Z - 240830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue across the Ohio Valley over the next several hours. A severe wind gust, or a brief tornado will be possible. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal, and watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Ozarks. A distinct vorticity max is evident on mosaic radar as an MCV in far southeast Missouri. Thunderstorms are ongoing from near the MCV extending northeastward into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, near a maximum in warm air advection. Surface dewpoints in the lower Ohio Valley are in the upper 60s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg in the vicinity of Evansville, Indiana. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 175 m2/s2. Directional shear is confined mostly to the lowest 1 kilometer. This wind profile should be enough for transient supercell structure. Any tornado that forms would likely be brief. An isolated severe gust will also be possible, especially if any of the cells can obtain a bowing structure. ..Broyles/Smith.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38588746 37968858 37498899 37138902 36918858 36898743 36918552 37288477 38038439 38578496 38708635 38588746 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will transverse eastward across the northern portion of a western US ridge on Wednesday, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240555
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just inland near the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 05:54:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240554 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE JOHN JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 99.2W ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Lagunas de Chacahua and the whole Tropical Storm Warning area. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 99.2 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move further inland near the coast of southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening over the high terrain of southern Mexico is forecast now that the core of John has moved inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, the Acapulco International Airport reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the warning area for the next few hours. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the hurricane warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin