Aggregator

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240550
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become more concentrated
since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240549 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 82.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Nine was located near 18.6, -82.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period. However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast. Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday. ...Southeast... A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization. Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty winds. Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z Thursday. ...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However, surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers. As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting east across the mid MS Valley early this morning. This feature is gradually deamplifying as it's kicked downstream in advance of an upstream short-wave trough that's digging across the Plains. As a result, 500mb flow should increase across the TN/OH Valley region, and high-level flow will become increasingly diffluent. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection continues ahead of this feature, extending from southwest IN into southeast MO. Some form of this activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, immediately ahead of the front. While the early-day convection should not be particularly robust, boundary-layer heating should aid destabilization, especially south of the OH River where 0-3km lapse rates should steepen by 18z allowing MLCAPE values to increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will be decidedly southwesterly, effective shear will be more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived clusters and even a few supercells. Forecast soundings suggest convection should develop fairly early in the period as mid-level lapse rates are poor, but convective temperatures will be breached quickly with temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80F. Primary concern with these storms will be damaging winds. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridge is forecast to build east into the Rockies during the day1 period, but this will allow a strong upper trough to dig south-southeast across the Plains as a 500mb speed max translates down the back side into western KS by 25/00z. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. This evolution will result in strong boundary-layer heating across the TX South Plains into northwest OK. Forecast soundings suggest 0-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic by 21z, and convective temperatures will be breached in the upper 80s to near 90F. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, profiles across northwest into central OK will favor supercells as low-level flow will be decidedly southeasterly through 1km, and effective shear will be strong (50kt). Additionally, MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg should support robust updrafts. Will introduce low severe probabilities for hail/wind for supercells that evolve during the mid-late afternoon. This activity will spread south-southeast during the evening hours in advance of the digging short wave. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time coverage of severe may not warrant higher probabilities. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/24/2024 Read more

The pumpkins at The Hermitage, Andrew Jackson’s historic home in Nashville, were growing, thanks to irrigation amid the drought. Then hungry deer came and devoured the pumpkins and corn. Officials with The Hermitage sought to buy pumpkins from elsewhere so they could still have a pumpkin carving event, but, finding none to purchase, the event was cancelled. Eventually, 100 pumpkins were donated so the event could go on. Similarly, the deer devastated the cotton crops in 2023. News Channel 5 Nashville (Tenn.), Sept 23, 2024

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:55:44 GMT

The Village of Middlefield passed a mandatory water conservation moratorium on Thursday, September 19 that allows water users to only use water for essential needs. Non-essential water uses like car washing, plant watering and swimming pool filling are not permitted. The LaDue Reservoir was getting very low. Cleveland 19 Online (Ohio), Sept 23, 2024