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Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 279 WTNT44 KNHC 240859 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized. A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value. The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt. This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower, with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future track refinements. Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall. Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches and warnings are likely later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by local officials. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 240858 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 2(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 2(51) X(51) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 31(41) X(41) X(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 56(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 65(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 77(79) X(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 2(56) X(56) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 2(60) X(60) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 67(68) 1(69) X(69) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 71(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 4(43) X(43) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) X(32) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 27(27) 17(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 32(33) 29(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240858 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Nine was located near 18.9, -83.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240858 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 523 WTPZ45 KNHC 240852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 John moved inland at around 0315 UTC as a 105 kt Category 3 Hurricane. Since that time, the the storm has apparently turned more leftward and remains just inland, skirting the southern coast of Mexico. While surface observations have been sparse, my best guess is that the storm recently passed just to the north of Acapulco, where the airport earlier reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts and west winds as the pressure dropped to 998 mb. Assuming the small core has continued to quickly weaken, John is being downgraded to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 60 kt this advisory. Following fixes from earlier microwave and more recent geostationary satellite imagery, John now appears to be moving northwestward at 310/7 kt. The track forecast, which has been problematic with John from the start, is just as difficult now. John has continued to deviate westward of the previous forecast track and is now moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. To make matters worse, a decent chunk of the of the global models guidance (ECMWF, UKMET) and hurricane regional models (HWRF, HMON) suggest the circulation could continue turning westward and attempt to re-emerge over the Eastern Pacific. Even the GFS and CMC solutions, which appear to dissipate the surface circulation inland over Mexico, show the mid-level circulation persisting and drifting back offshore, leading to the development of a new low-level circulation. Because it is becoming distinctly possible that John does not move far enough inland to dissipate entirely, and the aforementioned continued leftward trends, the latest NHC track forecast is altered quite a bit form the prior forecast, and now shows the possibility that John, albeit as a tropical depression, moving back offshore as it becomes tangled in the larger monsoonal flow. By 72 h, most of the track guidance shows the system moving back inland. The updated track forecast is roughly in between the HCCA and ECMWF trackers, and is of very low confidence given John's track history. It also remains possible the system could dissipate later today if it moves further inland. Intensity-wise, John should continue to rapidly weaken as long as it remains onshore, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the tropical cyclone weakening to a tropical depression later today. However, the new NHC forecast now maintains the system as a depression and does not show dissipation beyond 24 h given the latest track forecast taking the system along the coast of Mexico and not far enough inland to completely dissipate. Some of the models (notably the ECMWF) attempt to also re-intensify John as it gets far enough back offshore, but given the large changes made on this forecast cycle, the NHC intensity will not show that solution quite yet. Even if John remains inland, larger-scale moist monsoonal southeasterly flow will persist along the southern coast of Mexico, likely contributing to catastrophic rainfall both along the coast and inland over the up-slope portion of the mountainous terrain. This is a very dangerous life-threatening flooding scenario. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John could still producing tropical storm conditions for the next few hours in the tropical storm warning area. 2. Slow-moving John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.3N 100.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 08:51:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:29:09 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 50 66 X(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.3, -100.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 100.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the the Hurricane Warning from east of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 100.0 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A very slow motion westward followed by very little motion is forecasted over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical cyclone. Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and weakening deep-layer flow with time. Read more

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...Kentucky...Far Southeast Illinois...Far Southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240556Z - 240830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue across the Ohio Valley over the next several hours. A severe wind gust, or a brief tornado will be possible. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal, and watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Ozarks. A distinct vorticity max is evident on mosaic radar as an MCV in far southeast Missouri. Thunderstorms are ongoing from near the MCV extending northeastward into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, near a maximum in warm air advection. Surface dewpoints in the lower Ohio Valley are in the upper 60s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg in the vicinity of Evansville, Indiana. The WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 175 m2/s2. Directional shear is confined mostly to the lowest 1 kilometer. This wind profile should be enough for transient supercell structure. Any tornado that forms would likely be brief. An isolated severe gust will also be possible, especially if any of the cells can obtain a bowing structure. ..Broyles/Smith.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38588746 37968858 37498899 37138902 36918858 36898743 36918552 37288477 38038439 38578496 38708635 38588746 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands. ...FL/GA vicinity... A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for further details related to this potential tropical cyclone. ..Leitman.. 09/24/2024 Read more