Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ..Wendt.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more