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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024 Read more

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:55:23 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:41:52 GMT

Drought has killed trees, shrubs and other plants in Chattanooga due to insufficient water. Trees are turning color early in northeast Tennessee. Chattanooga Times Free Press (Tenn.), Sept 22, 2024

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 628 WTPZ45 KNHC 241435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 John has been rapidly weakening since it moved inland last night, and the maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be around 35 kt. The storm still has a well-defined mid-level center, but surface observations suggest that the low-level circulation is less defined and could be opening into a trough. A strong band of thunderstorms to the east of the estimated center continues to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the future of John. One possibility is that the storm dissipates over Mexico, with a trough or low reforming back offshore and lingering in that location for much of the rest of the week. The other possibility is that John itself hangs on as a tropical depression or storm. For now, the official forecast generally follows the previous scenario and shows John weakening to a tropical depression later today and lingering near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico until the end of the week. It is hoped that additional data and model runs later today will help provide some clarity on the system's future. Even though the future of John is uncertain, there is high confidence that heavy rains will continue in portions of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. See the Key Messages below for additional information on that hazard. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving John will continue to bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher terrain. 2. John could still produce tropical storm conditions for the next couple of hours in the tropical storm warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.7N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 25/0000Z 17.7N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 17.3N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/0000Z 17.7N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:05:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:28:54 GMT

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.7, -100.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 223 FOPZ15 KNHC 241434 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 11 2(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ACAPULCO 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 222 WTPZ35 KNHC 241434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.5 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). Little motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next couple of hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:00:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:23:03 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 14:59:54 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 241459 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) X(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 29(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 45(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 64(81) X(81) X(81) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 1(70) X(70) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 70(74) X(74) X(74) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 60(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 1(57) X(57) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 13 51(64) 4(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COZUMEL MX 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 37 45(82) 7(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 11(26) 6(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG