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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

Officials in Edinburg issued a city ordinance to limit car washes to conserve water and encourage sustainability. Water levels in the Rio Grande Valley were at a historical low, prompting local leaders to declare emergency orders amid the ongoing drought. Brownsville issued a city ordinance in April restricting new car washes from being built within five miles of each other. ValleyCentral.com (Brownsville, Texas), Sept 24, 2024

MD 2101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH TO NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE/WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...eastern West Virginia south to northeastern Tennessee/western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241755Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather is evident in the short term, where WW issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...While persistent/dense cloud cover is apparent in visible satellite imagery east of the mountains in Virginia, heating is ongoing across eastern West Virginia and areas south, where clouds are more sparse. This has resulted in a narrow axis of moderate destabilization (1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE). The destabilizing environment has supported a zone of convective development -- including a small/organized band of intense storms moving across portions of eastern West Virginia. Given the cloud cover/low-level stability across the mountains into the eastern West Virginia/western Maryland Panhandles and adjacent western Virginia, these storms should begin to weaken in the next hour or so as they shift eastward. Farther south however, a broader zone of destabilization may support a longer-duration risk for strong storms this afternoon. However, risk for severe weather should remain localized, and at this time it appears that WW issuance may not be required. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 39527966 39107939 37538021 35758132 35348300 36618309 38018131 39158047 39618014 39527966 Read more

MD 2100 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and Middle Tennessee...part of western and central Kentucky...southeastern Indiana...and southwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241653Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convective coverage/intensity should continue to ramp up through early afternoon, with severe threat to gradually increase. WW issuance may be required. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows broken cloud cover across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, in the wake of earlier convection. This has allowed modest destabilization to commence ahead of the advancing cold front, with an axis of 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now extending from southern Indiana south-southwestward across parts of western and Middle Tennessee. In response to the destabilizing environment, and ascent in the vicinity of the front, a gradual convective increase is noted on radar and visible satellite loops, which should continue over the next couple of hours as modest/continued heating/destabilization occur. On the southeastern fringe of the advancing trough (across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas), moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft is indicated, which will aid in storm intensification resulting in eventually multicell and potentially isolated supercell storms. As this occurs, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and some hail, will increase with stronger storms/storm clusters. Given the evolving severe-weather potential, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next hour or so. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 39698439 39118392 38178454 36088607 35228713 35078895 35678894 36438855 37718705 38608639 39528553 39698439 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241754
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Storm John, dissipated inland over southern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system and a tropical
depression could form in the next couple of days or so, depending on
if it stays over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241753
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
formed Tropical Storm Helene, located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite surface wind data from earlier today showed a broad open
trough associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the U.S. later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 84.5 West. Helene has been wobbling a bit now that a well-defined has just recently formed, but the longer-term motion is toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea to near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Cuba and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.4, -84.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.4, -84.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 17:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 17:49:31 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241748 TCDEP5 Remnants Of John Special Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low-level center of John has dissipated. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. However, an elongated trough partly associated with John's remnants appears to be forming off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system is now included in the Tropical Weather Outlook with a medium chance of development. Regardless of whether or not John re-forms or a new system develops, heavy rainfall with the potential for significant flooding is likely during the next several days over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1800Z 17.7N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

Issued at 1800 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241747 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF JOHN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 1800Z THE REMNANTS OF JOHN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS... 35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI