SPC Nov 19, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 19, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more