9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the
central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible
across portions of Oklahoma.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians...
Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on
observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across
areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a
mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi
Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong
southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and
the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast
into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe
storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest
from this low into the Mid South.
In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud
breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians,
with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into
southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the
timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample
deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized
multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be
the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible,
and some tornado risk may exist as well.
...Oklahoma/North Texas...
Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to
be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late
this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by
the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough
centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably
strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will
influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with
lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist
through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle.
Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at
least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as
mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater
coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with
MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this
afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and
robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt
northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial
supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along
with some potential for damaging wind gusts.
These storms will persist generally southeastward through the
evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas
overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after
sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger,
particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of
storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm
front.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024
Read more9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the
central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible
across portions of Oklahoma.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians...
Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on
observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across
areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a
mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi
Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong
southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and
the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast
into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe
storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest
from this low into the Mid South.
In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud
breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians,
with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into
southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the
timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample
deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized
multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be
the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible,
and some tornado risk may exist as well.
...Oklahoma/North Texas...
Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to
be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late
this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by
the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough
centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably
strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will
influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with
lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist
through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle.
Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at
least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as
mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater
coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with
MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this
afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and
robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt
northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial
supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along
with some potential for damaging wind gusts.
These storms will persist generally southeastward through the
evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas
overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after
sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger,
particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of
storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm
front.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024
Read more9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TN/KY/OH/WV AND CENTRAL OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the
central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible
across portions of Oklahoma.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians...
Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on
observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across
areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a
mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi
Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong
southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and
the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast
into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe
storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest
from this low into the Mid South.
In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud
breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians,
with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into
southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the
timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample
deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized
multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be
the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible,
and some tornado risk may exist as well.
...Oklahoma/North Texas...
Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to
be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late
this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by
the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough
centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably
strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will
influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with
lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist
through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle.
Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at
least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as
mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater
coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with
MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this
afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and
robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt
northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial
supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along
with some potential for damaging wind gusts.
These storms will persist generally southeastward through the
evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas
overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after
sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger,
particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of
storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm
front.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/24/2024
Read more9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024
628
WTPZ45 KNHC 241435
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024
John has been rapidly weakening since it moved inland last night,
and the maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be around 35
kt. The storm still has a well-defined mid-level center, but
surface observations suggest that the low-level circulation is
less defined and could be opening into a trough. A strong band of
thunderstorms to the east of the estimated center continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the future of John. One
possibility is that the storm dissipates over Mexico, with a trough
or low reforming back offshore and lingering in that location for
much of the rest of the week. The other possibility is that John
itself hangs on as a tropical depression or storm. For now, the
official forecast generally follows the previous scenario and shows
John weakening to a tropical depression later today and lingering
near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico until the end of
the week. It is hoped that additional data and model runs later
today will help provide some clarity on the system's future.
Even though the future of John is uncertain, there is high
confidence that heavy rains will continue in portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. See the Key
Messages below for additional information on that hazard.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Slow-moving John will continue to bring very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and
possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion
of areas of higher terrain.
2. John could still produce tropical storm conditions for the next
couple of hours in the tropical storm warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 17.7N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 25/0000Z 17.7N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1200Z 17.3N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0000Z 17.7N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024
222
WTPZ35 KNHC 241434
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next few hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.5 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). Little motion
is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Tropical Storm John is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next couple
of hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.
SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so,
with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see
local statements for more information.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241459
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also
indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very
recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite
imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based
on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm
Helene at this time.
Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt)
as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over
Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide
eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should
cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late
Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future.
Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is
beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show
relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In
addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system
will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence.
Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity
around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be some increase in shear around the time the system
reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only
weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system
could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with
hurricane conditions possible.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from
life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds
continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in
effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides
across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally
considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida,
with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding
will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241458
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the
U.S. later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A
northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed
is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean
Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast
of Florida late Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation,
and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued
strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could
become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.
Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This
rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding
likely, and isolated major river flooding possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Mexico today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower
Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch
area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
