Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

854
ABPZ20 KNHC 191729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more