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...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.7, -100.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Pumpkins growers in southwest Ohio grew plenty of pumpkins, but they are smaller, due to drought. The pumpkins hold less water this year, so they will weigh less and cost less. WXIX-TV FOX 19 Cincinnati (Ohio), Sept 20, 2024

At least 11 West Virginia counties have issued burn bans, due to the drought and heightened fire danger. The sheriff’s office relies on citizens to notice violators and report fires. Fines can range from $100 to $1,200. WCHS-TV ABC 8 (Charleston, W.V.),Sept 24, 2024

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 24 12:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle MS Valley and into the OH Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread KY and the surrounding states, with the strongest flow generally within the Slight Risk bounds. Bands of showers/weak thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from middle TN into OH, and in a separate area over eastern IL immediately ahead of the surface low. This low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower MI by early evening with a frontal zone extending south-southwest into the Mid South. In wake of the early morning convection, some cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian states. Ample deep-layer speed shear (via mostly southwesterly flow through the troposphere) will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Only notable change this outlook update was to include portions of the southern Great Lakes in low-severe probabilities for potential activity near/ahead of the surface low. The primary concern across the general region will likely be damaging winds with the stronger storms. ...OK vicinity... An amplifying large-scale trough over the MS Valley will feature a 60-kt 500mb speed max moving southward into the central Great Plains by early evening on the backside of the upper trough. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. Strong heating will contribute to 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon across OK with flow veering and strengthening with height. Elongated hodographs will support the potential for hail growth with a few of the stronger/sustained updrafts that evolve. An isolated threat for large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and/or severe gusts (60-70 mph) will probably peak during the 23z-03z period before storms weaken during the late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle MS Valley and into the OH Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread KY and the surrounding states, with the strongest flow generally within the Slight Risk bounds. Bands of showers/weak thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from middle TN into OH, and in a separate area over eastern IL immediately ahead of the surface low. This low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower MI by early evening with a frontal zone extending south-southwest into the Mid South. In wake of the early morning convection, some cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian states. Ample deep-layer speed shear (via mostly southwesterly flow through the troposphere) will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Only notable change this outlook update was to include portions of the southern Great Lakes in low-severe probabilities for potential activity near/ahead of the surface low. The primary concern across the general region will likely be damaging winds with the stronger storms. ...OK vicinity... An amplifying large-scale trough over the MS Valley will feature a 60-kt 500mb speed max moving southward into the central Great Plains by early evening on the backside of the upper trough. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. Strong heating will contribute to 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon across OK with flow veering and strengthening with height. Elongated hodographs will support the potential for hail growth with a few of the stronger/sustained updrafts that evolve. An isolated threat for large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and/or severe gusts (60-70 mph) will probably peak during the 23z-03z period before storms weaken during the late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle MS Valley and into the OH Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread KY and the surrounding states, with the strongest flow generally within the Slight Risk bounds. Bands of showers/weak thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from middle TN into OH, and in a separate area over eastern IL immediately ahead of the surface low. This low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower MI by early evening with a frontal zone extending south-southwest into the Mid South. In wake of the early morning convection, some cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian states. Ample deep-layer speed shear (via mostly southwesterly flow through the troposphere) will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Only notable change this outlook update was to include portions of the southern Great Lakes in low-severe probabilities for potential activity near/ahead of the surface low. The primary concern across the general region will likely be damaging winds with the stronger storms. ...OK vicinity... An amplifying large-scale trough over the MS Valley will feature a 60-kt 500mb speed max moving southward into the central Great Plains by early evening on the backside of the upper trough. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. Strong heating will contribute to 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon across OK with flow veering and strengthening with height. Elongated hodographs will support the potential for hail growth with a few of the stronger/sustained updrafts that evolve. An isolated threat for large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and/or severe gusts (60-70 mph) will probably peak during the 23z-03z period before storms weaken during the late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. A few strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the southern Plains. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle MS Valley and into the OH Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread KY and the surrounding states, with the strongest flow generally within the Slight Risk bounds. Bands of showers/weak thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from middle TN into OH, and in a separate area over eastern IL immediately ahead of the surface low. This low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower MI by early evening with a frontal zone extending south-southwest into the Mid South. In wake of the early morning convection, some cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian states. Ample deep-layer speed shear (via mostly southwesterly flow through the troposphere) will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Only notable change this outlook update was to include portions of the southern Great Lakes in low-severe probabilities for potential activity near/ahead of the surface low. The primary concern across the general region will likely be damaging winds with the stronger storms. ...OK vicinity... An amplifying large-scale trough over the MS Valley will feature a 60-kt 500mb speed max moving southward into the central Great Plains by early evening on the backside of the upper trough. Left exit region of this feature will encourage large-scale ascent, and a weak surface wave/low should evolve over southwest KS/northwest OK by early afternoon. Strong heating will contribute to 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon across OK with flow veering and strengthening with height. Elongated hodographs will support the potential for hail growth with a few of the stronger/sustained updrafts that evolve. An isolated threat for large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and/or severe gusts (60-70 mph) will probably peak during the 23z-03z period before storms weaken during the late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/24/2024 Read more

A Hartselle farm opened for fall activities, but drought hindered the growth of the sugarcane for the maze, so they made a hay bale maze instead. The pumpkins did not grow well, so they borrowed some from nearby farms. WHNT News 19 (Huntsville, Ala.), Sept 21, 2024

337
ABNT20 KNHC 241153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just inland near the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241151 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 83.5 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.2, -83.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:51:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:29:09 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241146 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has adjusted the Tropical Storm Warning westward from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.3 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.7, -100.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 10:05:21 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:40:28 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:01:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:23:13 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:00:14 GMT