National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Earlier today, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigated a broad area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles east of the central Bahamas, finding that the system
did not possess a well-defined surface circulation, but was
producing winds around 40 mph on its northeastern side. Shower and
thunderstorm activity persists, but the system only has limited time
to develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the
next day or so as it moves slowly west-northwestward. By Tuesday,
strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances for
further development as the system turns northward away from the
northwestern Bahamas. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the
system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph towards Central
America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290243 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 Tammy's second time as a tropical cyclone appears near its end. While some sheared puffs of moderate convection have attempted to re-form off to the northeast of an increasingly elongated circulation center, this activity lacks sufficient organization to maintain Tammy as a tropical cyclone. For now, advisories will be continued in the event that there could be one final nocturnal burst of deeper convection closer to the center. In the mean time, satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT data suggest some continued spin down from this afternoon, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt this advisory. If more organized convection does not return soon, Tammy could become a post-tropical low as soon as overnight, and likely during the day tomorrow as the storm succumbs to the increasingly hostile high shear and dry mid-level air environment. Tammy is beginning to lose latitude, with the estimated motion now east-southeast at 105/15 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, Tammy or its remnant low should be primarily steered clockwise around an amplifying ridge to the storm's north and west. This should result in a further turn southeastward and then southward before the low-level circulation opens up into a trough. The latest NHC forecast is once again a bit faster than the prior forecast, but lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2023 02:42:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2023 03:22:34 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 290242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 ...TAMMY'S SECOND TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARLY UP... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 55.2W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Tammy is moving toward the east-southeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and the cyclone is expected to gradually turn southward before dissipating by the middle part of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low as soon as tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TAMMY'S SECOND TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARLY UP... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 28 the center of Tammy was located near 32.6, -55.2 with movement ESE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290241 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 56.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282347
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tammy, located several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a small area of
low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of the coast of the
Dominican Republic. While upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for further development, this system could become a
short-lived tropical depression or storm over the next day or so. By
Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for
further development as the system turns northward to the east of the
northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 02:37:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 03:22:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 02:37:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 03:22:44 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tammy tonight. Its limited convection is confined to the northeastern portion of its circulation, which is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. This shear has resulted in the vortex becoming vertically tilted, with the mid-level center displaced to the northeast of the low-level center in recent AMSR2 passive microwave images. Based on these structural changes and the decreasing satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The deep-layer shear is expected to persist over Tammy during the next few days, which should result in weakening while the storm moves over marginal SSTs. While the forecast track does bring the center of Tammy over warmer waters by early next week, the much drier and more convergent upper-level environment should make it difficult for Tammy to sustain organized convection. In fact, GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite data indicate Tammy could be completely devoid of convection within the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, following the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Post-tropical remnant low status is shown in 72 h, although this could occur even sooner than forecast. The long-term motion of Tammy is north-northwestward (335/4 kt), but recent satellite images indicate the cyclone is now turning northward as anticipated. A faster eastward to southeastward motion is forecast over the weekend as Tammy moves around the northern and eastern sides of a mid-level ridge. Then, the weakening cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn southward on Monday as the ridge becomes positioned to its west. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which still lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 32.7N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 280235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 280235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280235 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 ...SHEARED TAMMY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 61.3W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 61.3 West. Tammy is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast is expected through early Saturday, followed by a faster eastward to east-southeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, Tammy will move away from Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...SHEARED TAMMY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 27 the center of Tammy was located near 32.7, -61.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 61.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 760SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 61.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tammy, located a couple of hundred miles east of Bermuda.

Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262336
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic (Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy):
A strong extratropical cyclone (formerly Tammy) associated with an
occluded front is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. This
system is forecast to become separated from the front during the
next day or so, and environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for the low to regain tropical characteristics while
it meanders over the northwestern Atlantic to the east of Bermuda
through Saturday. Regardless of tropical redevelopment, the system
is likely to bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda during
the next couple of days. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system. For additional information, including storm
and gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and products from the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system early
next week while it moves generally northward over western or central
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:43:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 03:22:45 GMT