National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 11:57:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 09:24:59 GMT

Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171157 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AND LARGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 74.0W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Tropical Storm Watch with a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the large and ragged eye of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 74.0 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Data from the Hurricane Hunters aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are likely over Bermuda by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AND LARGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Humberto was located near 30.6, -74.0 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located more than 500 miles west of Bermuda.

A small low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased and become a little better organized this morning, and
conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a
tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas coast
has changed little in organization. However, some slight development
is still possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast later tonight or early Wednesday. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce areas of
very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along the coastal
regions of southwestern Louisiana and central and upper Texas
tonight and Wednesday, and over eastern Texas and western Louisiana
on Thursday. For additional information, see products issued by your
local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 08:49:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 09:24:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170845 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The cloud pattern continues to be rather impressive, but the eye is ragged looking and less defined than a few hours ago. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed significantly and support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Another reconnaissance plane will check the hurricane's structure in the morning. Humberto is expected to continue to moving over warm waters for the next few days, and intensity guidance as well as global models strengthen the hurricane a little more. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about 24 to 36 hours. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to be hostile, resulting in weakening. By day 5, if not sooner, the cyclone should become embedded within a frontal zone and begin to acquire extratropical characteristics at that time. Satellite fixes indicate that the initial motion continues toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 7 kt. Humberto is well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion with a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast for the next 5 days. Track models are in good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. It is also very similar to the previous official forecast. It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by Wednesday and will be affecting portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 74.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 170844 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 53(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LARGE HUMBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... ...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO REACH THE HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 74.3W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the large and ragged eye of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 74.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LARGE HUMBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... ...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO REACH THE HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Humberto was located near 30.6, -74.3 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170843 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 74.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 74.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 74.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located nearly 600 miles west of Bermuda.

A small low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system has changed little in
organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations
indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are
no signs of a surface circulation at this time. Some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper
Texas coastal areas later this week. For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 688 WTNT34 KNHC 170531 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LARGE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 74.7W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night. Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LARGE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Humberto was located near 30.5, -74.7 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 05:31:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:25:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 02:34:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:25:09 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Humberto continues to have an impressive overall appearance on satellite imagery, although the eye is a bit ragged looking. Earlier radar images from the NOAA P-3 aircraft showed that the eyewall was somewhat fragmented. A last-minute observation of 700-mb flight-level winds of 86 kt from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, outbound to the west of the eye, is roughly consistent with a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. Humberto should continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, and much of the numerical guidance shows intensification in the short term. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, continues to call for the system to become a major hurricane within the next day or so. This is similar to the intensity model consensus. By 48 hours, the shear should become very strong and a weakening trend will likely be underway. By day 5, if not sooner, the ECMWF global model shows the system embedded within a frontal zone so Humberto is forecast to be extratropical at that time. The eye has been wobbling over the past few hours, but a smoothed estimate of the motion is just north of east or 075/7 kt. Humberto should continue to move along the northern side of a subtropical ridge with a gradual increase in forward speed for the next couple of days. After that, the hurricane should turn northeastward and north-northeastward with some additional acceleration in response to a strong mid-tropospheric trough near Atlantic Canada. Around the end of the forecast period, the global models differ significantly as to how far north into the Atlantic Humberto will move. The official forecast leans toward the ECMWF and corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.3N 75.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 200 FONT14 KNHC 170232 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 72(76) 19(95) X(95) X(95) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 28(55) X(55) X(55) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 201 WTNT24 KNHC 170232 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 75.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 202 WTNT34 KNHC 170232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 75.1W ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night. Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Humberto was located near 30.3, -75.1 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.