Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 5

18 hours 21 minutes ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212033 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 The cyclone has lacked deep convection since early this morning, and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone. Dry mid-level air, the influence of an upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development. The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone. Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the motion is about 070/7. The system should move mainly eastward within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation. This is the last advisory on Andrea. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 30.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

18 hours 21 minutes ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 212033 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Public Advisory Number 5

18 hours 21 minutes ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 212033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...ANDREA IS A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 68.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 68.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward the east is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 5

18 hours 22 minutes ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 212032 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 68.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 4

1 day ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211435 TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance, the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or less. The system has moved a little more to the north than previously estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Depression Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

1 day ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 211435 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Depression Andrea Public Advisory Number 4

1 day ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 4

1 day ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211434 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 3

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210835 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 During the past few hours, deep convection has waned considerably, likely due to the entrainment of dry mid-level from the south and modest southerly vertical wind shear as indciated by GOES-16 mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery. As mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, an earlier ASCAT overpass just barely caught 35-kt winds about 50-55 nmi northeast of the low-level center, which was likely just outside the radius of maximum winds. Since slightly stronger winds could have existed closer to the center, the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory despite the aforementioned degradation in the convective pattern. The initial motion estimate is 360/05 kt. It appears that Andrea is slowing down, implying that a turn toward the northeast should occur within the next 6-12 h as a deep-layer trough and cold front steadily approach the cyclone from the northwest. The global and regional models remain in good agreement that Andrea will turn northeastward later today, and then move eastward by tonight and Wednesday when the cyclone becomes embedded within the approaching deep-layer mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies a little south of the middle of the track guidance envelope. Although deep convection has decreased markedly, thunderstorm activity should redevelop some by this afternoon and tonight when Andrea will be moving eastward over an SST thermal ridge and into a region of convective instability that exist between 65W-68W longitude. which will also be coincident with the vertical wind shear decreasing to less than 5 kt as per SHIPS model output. However, some slight spin down of the vortex will likely occur before convection can re-fire and re-strengthens the system. Thus, the intensity forecast essentially calls for little change in strength for the next 24 h or so, followed by weakening due to increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, and then merger with a cold front on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus model and the weakening trend noted in the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 210835 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 3

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 69.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 69.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and that general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is forecast by this afternoon, followed by an eastward motion by late tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest and south of Bermuda during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by weakening late tonight. Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 3

1 day 6 hours ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210834 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 69.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 69.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 69.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 9 hours ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster
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13 minutes 57 seconds ago
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