National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041215 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Corrected order of disturbances

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small and weak area of low pressure, with limited shower and
thunderstorm activity, is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Significant development of this system is not expected during the
next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
Thereafter, this system is forecast to move northward or
north-northwestward over cooler waters, ending its development
chances. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and
into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the
weekend into early next week while the system moves generally
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 04 Aug 2021 15:22:45 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031112
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure with a few associated showers and
thunderstorms has formed about 120 miles south of Praia in the Cabo
Verde Islands. Further development of this system, if any, should
be limited during the next day or two while it moves northward or
northwestward before the system moves over cooler waters by
Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291113
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of a weak low pressure area that moved inland along the
Georgia coastline last night are located just inland near the
Georgia/South Carolina border and are producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Significant redevelopment of this system is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is located just offshore of the
southeastern United States coastline. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased this morning, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for some additional development during
the next couple of days while the system drifts offshore of
the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Georgia is
expected to move off of the southeastern United States coastline by
Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into
early next week while the system drifts slowly offshore of coastal
North and South Carolina.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure associated with a decaying frontal
boundary is forecast to move offshore of the southeastern United
States coastline by late this week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the weekend into early next week while the system meanders
offshore of the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia, and northeastern
Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

368
ABNT20 KNHC 161109
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151119
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has increased slightly since yesterday in
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure, located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development while the low moves little through tonight. On Friday,
the low is expected to accelerate northeastward and open up into a
trough of low pressure to the south of Atlantic Canada. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing
near-gale-force winds, however, showers and thunderstorms, well
east of its center, remain limited. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive during the next couple of
days, some slight development of this system is possible as it
drifts generally southwestward over warmer waters. Toward the end
of the week, the low is expected to accelerate northeastward and
open up into a trough of low pressure to the south of Atlantic
Canada.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical broad area of low pressure has formed along a
decaying frontal boundary several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cape Race, Newfoundland. The low is producing a concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern portion of the system.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable at
this time, some slight development is possible during the next
couple of days as it drifts generally southward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 813 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Issued at 808 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081200
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:59:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:27:30 GMT

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081157 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ELSA HEADS NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 80.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Myrtle Beach International Airport, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts this morning, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for portions of the U. S. coast north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and gale conditions are expected in this area late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin