Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

13 hours 35 minutes ago

723
ABNT20 KNHC 191721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands has decreased some this morning.
Further development is becoming less likely since the environment is
becoming unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

19 hours 33 minutes ago

169
ABNT20 KNHC 191123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather located a little more than 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical
wave moving westward about 10 to 15 mph. Some slight development is
possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Avila

NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 1 hour ago

850
ABNT20 KNHC 190518
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce, located several hundred miles south
of the Azores.

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disturbed weather more
than 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some slow
development of this system through Friday while the disturbance
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the
weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 26

1 day 4 hours ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 630 WTNT45 KNHC 190235 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 During the past couple of days, Joyce had been producing patches of deep convection that would quickly shear off due to strong westerly winds aloft. Each convective burst appeared weaker than the previous one, and during the past 12-18 hours, the circulation has been nearly devoid of deep convection. Therefore, Joyce no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The initial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a recent ASCAT pass around 2200Z that showed maximum winds in the 20-25 kt range. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and ultimately dissipate in a couple of days due to dry and stable air, cool SSTs, and moderate to strong westerly shear. Joyce is moving south-southwestward at 7 kt on the east side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A turn to the southwest is expected on Wednesday as the ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and that motion should continue until the remnant low dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 30.4N 27.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

1 day 4 hours ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 773 FONT15 KNHC 190232 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Public Advisory Number 26

1 day 4 hours ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 755 WTNT35 KNHC 190232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 27.9W ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 27.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A southwestward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate within a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Joyce. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 26

1 day 4 hours ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 076 WTNT25 KNHC 190231 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 27.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 27.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 27.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 27.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON JOYCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 7 hours ago

113
ABNT20 KNHC 182346
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the Azores.

A large area of disturbed weather has developed in association with
a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system through
Friday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the
weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 25

1 day 10 hours ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 812 WTNT45 KNHC 182029 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 Deep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day or so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no longer having organized deep convection. With the decrease in overall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt. An environment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause Joyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday. This agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the timing of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or less). The initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south- southwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt). The depression is forecast to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF, is tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 30.9N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

1 day 10 hours ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 699 FONT15 KNHC 182028 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 25

1 day 10 hours ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 712 WTNT25 KNHC 182028 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 27.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 27.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 25

1 day 10 hours ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 711 WTNT35 KNHC 182028 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 27.8W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually turn to the southwest and west through early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 day 13 hours ago

364
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the
Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center has issued the
final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located just
off the coast of New England.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NHC Webmaster
Checked
7 hours 12 minutes ago
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