National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 17:49:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:24:43 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011749 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 36.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 36.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 36.0, -36.8 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located several hundred miles southwest of the western
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves to the west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple
of days, and over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend from the
southeastern Bahamas northeastward across the western Atlantic for
several hundred miles are associated with a surface trough.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and east
of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011454 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours. Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 011453 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 72 28(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 2 98(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 71(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 011453 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 37.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 480SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 37.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 200SE 220SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 37.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 05:51:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 03:24:36 GMT

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 40.5W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday. Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores today and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 32.8, -40.5 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, and is producing a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the
west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and
across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and east of the
southeastern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and
east of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010245 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses. The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions. Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore. It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 02:44:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 03:24:36 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010242 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 41.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday. Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 32.0, -41.2 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 010242 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 44(44) 56(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 3( 3) 94(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 70(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010241 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 41.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 23:55:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 21:24:41 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 41.8W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 41.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 31.2, -41.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.