Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast
of the Turks and Caicos continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms primarily east and
northeast of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent significant development of this system during the next day
or so. The low is beginning to move eastward and should accelerate
further to the east-northeast over the next several days. On
Friday, the disturbance is forecast to interact with a mid-latitude
trough and further tropical development is not anticipated after
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and
adjacent Atlantic waters continue in association with a surface
trough of low pressure. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to
unfavorable upper-level winds. The system is forecast to drift
northward through tonight, then accelerate eastward as a broad area
of low pressure on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, further
development is not anticipated since the disturbance will be
interacting with a frontal system. Regardless, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located near the Windward Islands has continued to
become less organized this morning and development of the system is
not expected. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible across portions of the central and northern Lesser
Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. Development of this
system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days
due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The system is expected
to interact with a front by the end of the week and further
development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day
or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 100 miles off the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, well to the northeast of the center of
circulation. Strong upper-level winds should limit significant
tropical or subtropical development during the next few days while
the low moves northeastward at about 5 mph off the coasts of the
Carolinas. Some non-tropical development will be possible over the
weekend due to the system interacting with a frontal boundary.
Regardless of development, this system could bring gusty winds and
locally heavy rain to portions of the Carolinas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Victor Forecast Discussion Number 21

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041443 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Victor Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Victor is no longer a tropical cyclone. A timely 1048 UTC ASCAT-A pass confirms that Victor does not have a closed surface circulation. Since the system has degenerated into a trough of low pressure over the central Atlantic, this will be the final NHC advisory on Victor. An area of 20 to 22-kt scatterometer winds is noted well to the northeast of the trough axis, but these winds should diminish through tonight as the trough dampens and the remnants move west-northwestward. Hostile environmental conditions, including strong southerly shear and very dry mid-level air, will inhibit any redevelopment of this system. Additional information on the remnants of Victor can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 48

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041443 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Sam remains a formidable high-latitude hurricane this morning. An earlier 1102 UTC GMI microwave overpass continued to depict concentric eyewalls with a fairly well-defined inner-eye that was open over the southwestern quadrant. Although there has been a generally warming of the cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery, the eye remains apparent and the system is still fairly symmetric. A blend of the subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from both SAB and TAFB yield an intensity of 85 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Now that Sam has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into much higher vertical wind shear conditions by this evening, which should cause some gradual weakening. However, the interaction of the cyclone with a strong upper-level trough is likely to lead to the rapid transition of Sam into a powerful extratropical cyclone later this evening. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds until late Tuesday. Gradual weakening should occur after that time as the baroclinic forcing decreases, and the system is forecast to spin down slowly over the north Atlantic later this week. Sam continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving at 045/28 kt. A faster northeastward motion is forecast through tonight as Sam moves within the strong southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down on Tuesday as it interacts with the trough/cut-off low. After that time, the system is forecast to turn east-northeastward, and then rotate cyclonically around the eastern flank of yet another cut-off low later in the week. The dynamical model guidance remains in generally good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario, albeit for some forward speed variations. The latest official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus in deference to the aforementioned along-track differences. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 42.6N 45.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 041442 PWSAT5 REMNANTS OF VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF VICTOR WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS ...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER REINHART
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Victor Public Advisory Number 21

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Remnants Of Victor Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...VICTOR DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 45.2W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Victor were located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 45.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Victor. Additional information on the remnants of Victor can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 041442 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Remnants of Victor Forecast Advisory Number 21

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041442 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF VICTOR CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 48

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...SAM MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.6N 45.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 45.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through tonight. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)

1 month 4 weeks ago
...SAM MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 4 the center of Sam was located near 42.6, -45.7 with movement NE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 48

1 month 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 240SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 390SE 580SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 240SE 210SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Sam, located over the far North Atlantic, and on Tropical
Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers continues over
the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters
in association with a surface trough. Upper-level winds are not
expected to be especially conducive, and any development of this
system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward
through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
Checked
2 years 2 months ago
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