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WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE ADM TO 25 E OKC TO 35 SSE PNC. ..THORNTON..09/25/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-029-037-063-069-081-091-107-111-119-121-123-125-133- 250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA COAL CREEK HUGHES JOHNSTON LINCOLN MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2106 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682... FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682... Valid 250110Z - 250215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail threat within WW682. DISCUSSION...Supercell activity continues across central Oklahoma along and north of a warm frontal boundary across central Oklahoma. Hail up to baseball size was reported earlier near the Oklahoma City metro. This cell has since weakened and moved southward. Additional supercell development is ongoing across the I-40 corridor east of Oklahoma City. Strong deep layer shear around 40-45 kts and MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg remains in place across central Oklahoma. This environment will continue to support supercells with potential for large hail and damaging wind to continue across this region, spreading southward with time through the evening. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34349695 34549734 35069738 35539715 35839703 35939699 35999697 36079645 35609533 35269520 34869518 34479549 34279579 34159598 34129626 34349695 Read more

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FSI TO 35 N CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106 ..THORNTON..09/25/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-027-029-037-049-063-069-081-087-091-099-107-109-111-119- 121-123-125-133-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CLEVELAND COAL CREEK GARVIN HUGHES JOHNSTON LINCOLN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Strong to locally severe storms also remain possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians region. ...Central OK into north TX... A hail-producing supercell that earlier moved through the OKC metro area has weakened, but additional development is underway across central OK. A cluster of strong to locally severe storms may continue southeastward into north TX through late evening, with moderate buoyancy and relatively strong deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. Increasing CINH should eventually result in a weakening trend, though a few stronger elevated storms will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the southern Appalachians, within a relatively moist and favorably sheared environment. A gradual decreasing trend is expected to continue with time, due to diurnal cooling and weakening instability. However, ascent attendant to a mid/upper-level trough digging southeastward from the lower MO/mid MS Valley will help to sustain multicell clusters and possibly a couple supercells into late evening, with a threat of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ..Dean.. 09/25/2024 Read more

MD 2105 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 681... FOR EASTERN KY/TN INTO SOUTHWEST WV/WESTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KY/TN into southwest WV/western VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 681... Valid 242252Z - 250045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 681 continues. SUMMARY...Some hail/wind threat continues with scattered storms this evening. DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough is ejecting across the OH Valley early this evening and scattered strong/severe convection continues within the warm-advection zone, well ahead of the front. Over the last few hours, greatest concentration of robust, long-lived updrafts/supercells is beneath the strongest mid-level flow across eastern KY/northeast TN. Radar data suggests at least 4-6 supercells, extending 50mi either side of the TN/KY border, moving east-northeast toward western VA/southwest WV. However, air mass is notably less buoyant downstream and these updrafts will encounter increasingly hostile environment across the higher terrain and points east. Until then, hail/wind threat will continue with these storms. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37058475 38078251 37298155 36198246 36218544 37058475 Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more

WW 0681 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 681 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...OHX...MRX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 681 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-161-242340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DEARBORN FRANKLIN JEFFERSON OHIO RIPLEY SCOTT SWITZERLAND UNION KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-029-037-041-045-049- 051-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-093-097-099- 103-109-111-113-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-141-147-151-155-161- 165-167-169-171-173-179-181-185-187-189-191-197-199-201-203-205- 207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-235-237-239-242340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE Read more

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0682 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 479 WTNT34 KNHC 242351 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HELENE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HELENE STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.8, -85.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

220
ABNT20 KNHC 242333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Helene, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system and a tropical
depression could form in the next couple of days or so, depending on
if it stays over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for
flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly