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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible later today from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS will become rather complex today and tonight. Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to intensify as a hurricane as it begins to move north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. A mid/upper-level low that will initially be over the mid MS Valley is expected to slow down and eventually move southward, as it begins to interact with Helene. A northern-stream mid/upper-level trough is expected to amplify as it moves east-southeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest through the day and into the evening. ...Parts of the TX Gulf Coast into the Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy with time, a few strong storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and generally favorable deep-layer shear. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. Compared to areas farther east, somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east TX into LA, and perhaps into MS, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation. This will result in strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day and especially into the evening/overnight. Instability will likely remain rather weak, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain, but some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the peninsula and Keys, especially later in the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central PA into western NY. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with midlevel lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low to add probabilities at this time. ...Eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential from eastern WA into northern ID and northwest MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, though rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases regarding the development of sufficient instability. ..Dean/Thornton.. 09/25/2024 Read more

238
ABNT20 KNHC 250553
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Helene, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located
west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several
hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-wind
data indicated the system was producing winds up to storm-force, and
environmental conditions could support some subtropical or tropical
development over the next several days as the system moves generally
eastward, remaining over the open waters of central Subtropical
Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 306 WTNT34 KNHC 250553 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...CENTER OF HELENE APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 85.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line * Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * Lake Okeechobee * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Florida and the southeastern United States later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 85.9 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion should continue through this morning, followed by a general northward motion beginning later today and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph (55 to 65 km/h) are being reported from the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun and Cozumel. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in Florida later today and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast today and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF HELENE APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 the center of Helene was located near 20.4, -85.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
An area of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity
along and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This activity is
showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now
likely to form in the next day or two, as long as the system remains
over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides over a large portion of southern Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Derby remained in stage 2 drought restrictions since August 5 as Cheney Reservoir was low. The aim was to have customers conserve 10% of normal water use in August and September, but the public was very responsive to the call for water conservation and curbed their use by more than 40%. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Sept 25, 2024 Water users in Derby have reduced their water consumption by 44% in the first two weeks of mandatory water restrictions. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kansas), Aug 20, 2024

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 03:50:26 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 03:30:10 GMT

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DUA TO 35 S CQB TO 10 SE CQB TO 20 S TUL. ..THORNTON..09/25/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 682 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-029-063-091-107-111-121-123-133-250440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA COAL HUGHES MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 682 SEVERE TSTM OK 242245Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will intensify early this evening across central Oklahoma and drift eastward across the watch area. Initial storms will pose a risk of large hail, with an increasing threat of gusty/damaging winds later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Chickasha OK to 15 miles east northeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 681... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 02:57:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 02:57:38 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Helene continues to become better organized with increased convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although this may be conservative. Although the storm has been wobbling over the past few hours, center fixes from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a generally west-northwestward motion at around 300/9 kt. Helene should turn northwestward soon as a high pressure area over Florida shifts eastward, with the tropical cyclone center passing near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a mid-tropospheric trough is digging over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Helene to turn northward with an increase in forward speed during the next day or so. An accelerating northward to north-northeastward motion over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should take the system to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast in about 48 hours. After landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around a mid-level low over the south-central United States. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one and is on top of the latest corrected consensus track guidance. Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. Thus, significant strengthening is anticipated before landfall on the northeast Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows steady to rapid intensification (RI) of 25 kt for the next 24 hours and 30 kt for the 24- to 48-hour forecast interval. This is in general agreement with the SHIPS RI indices. Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area on Thursday. 4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 02:55:50 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 250255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 12(50) X(50) X(50) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 34 X 10(10) 18(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 19(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 39(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 56(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 73(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 56(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 17(74) X(74) X(74) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 11(77) X(77) X(77) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 16(48) X(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 65(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 68(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 64(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 37(59) X(59) X(59) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 54 11(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) COZUMEL MX 50 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) COZUMEL MX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 80 10(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 35 29(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 10(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line * Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * Lake Okeechobee * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Florida and the southeastern United States on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Wednesday night over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.9, -85.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250254 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.5W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.5W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 85.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH