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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more