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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024 Read more