Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in. High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land. A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10% chance of lightning. ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Thursday, a strong upper low over the Upper Midwest will shift into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. The post-frontal airmass behind the cold front in the Southeast/Florida will lead to RH reductions by the afternoon across these areas. Generally light winds and preceding precipitation should limit most fire weather concerns. Depending on the amount of precipitation that falls on late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a modest increase in fire weather concerns could occur in parts of northern/central Florida which have seen little rainfall in the last week. Uncertainty remains too high for highlights, however. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected Today. ...Discussion... An upper low initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region with time, deepening through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to remain off the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, an occluded low will shift across the Upper Great Lakes in tandem with the upper cyclone, while a cold front crosses the Appalachians through the first half of the period. Overnight, the front will move off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast, lingering only across southern portions of Florida by the end of the period Thursday morning. With a zone of strong onshore/upslope southwesterly flow across the Pacific Northwest southeast of the offshore upper low, showers and occasional lightning flashes will occur, with lightning potential focused near the Coast Ranges. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will also be possible across the Mid-Atlantic states south to North Carolina, ahead of the advancing surface cold front. Given weak/slightly elevated instability anticipated across this area, severe weather is not expected. Finally, showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula, but with weak lapse rates and modest flow aloft, severe storms are not anticipated. ..Goss/Wendt.. 11/20/2024 Read more