Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will generally be minimal across much of the country through the extended period, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of the Plains mid-week. An active upper-level regime will persist through the remainder of the week, characterized by the amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest in the wake of today's trough ejection into the Plains. This regime will maintain an unseasonably strong (1000-1005 mb) surface low across the broader Midwest/Great Lakes region, which will support several days of windy conditions across the Plains, Midwest, and the OH River Valley regions. Despite the windy conditions, widespread rainfall will eliminate fuel concerns for most locations with the exception of western NE/SD where the probability of wetting rainfall through mid-week is low. Elsewhere, upper ridging over the Four Corners and northern Rockies will help maintain rain chances along the West coast, and dry, but relatively calm, conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains through next weekend. ...D3/Wed - Western SD/NE... Breezy gradient winds are expected again on D3/Wednesday across much of the Plains. While the strongest winds are expected to reside across the central Dakotas into the lower MO River Valley, portions of western SD/NE will likely see 15-20 mph winds. Relative humidity values are expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally in the 25-35% range) due to cool temperatures, but may fall to near 20% for some locations. Additionally, recent reports suggest fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support fire spread. While critical conditions are possible, the general expectation is for areas of elevated wind/RH conditions during peak heating hours. Areas further north and east where winds will be strongest should see limited fire concerns given recent and/or anticipated precipitation over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will generally be minimal across much of the country through the extended period, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of the Plains mid-week. An active upper-level regime will persist through the remainder of the week, characterized by the amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest in the wake of today's trough ejection into the Plains. This regime will maintain an unseasonably strong (1000-1005 mb) surface low across the broader Midwest/Great Lakes region, which will support several days of windy conditions across the Plains, Midwest, and the OH River Valley regions. Despite the windy conditions, widespread rainfall will eliminate fuel concerns for most locations with the exception of western NE/SD where the probability of wetting rainfall through mid-week is low. Elsewhere, upper ridging over the Four Corners and northern Rockies will help maintain rain chances along the West coast, and dry, but relatively calm, conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains through next weekend. ...D3/Wed - Western SD/NE... Breezy gradient winds are expected again on D3/Wednesday across much of the Plains. While the strongest winds are expected to reside across the central Dakotas into the lower MO River Valley, portions of western SD/NE will likely see 15-20 mph winds. Relative humidity values are expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally in the 25-35% range) due to cool temperatures, but may fall to near 20% for some locations. Additionally, recent reports suggest fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support fire spread. While critical conditions are possible, the general expectation is for areas of elevated wind/RH conditions during peak heating hours. Areas further north and east where winds will be strongest should see limited fire concerns given recent and/or anticipated precipitation over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will generally be minimal across much of the country through the extended period, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of the Plains mid-week. An active upper-level regime will persist through the remainder of the week, characterized by the amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest in the wake of today's trough ejection into the Plains. This regime will maintain an unseasonably strong (1000-1005 mb) surface low across the broader Midwest/Great Lakes region, which will support several days of windy conditions across the Plains, Midwest, and the OH River Valley regions. Despite the windy conditions, widespread rainfall will eliminate fuel concerns for most locations with the exception of western NE/SD where the probability of wetting rainfall through mid-week is low. Elsewhere, upper ridging over the Four Corners and northern Rockies will help maintain rain chances along the West coast, and dry, but relatively calm, conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains through next weekend. ...D3/Wed - Western SD/NE... Breezy gradient winds are expected again on D3/Wednesday across much of the Plains. While the strongest winds are expected to reside across the central Dakotas into the lower MO River Valley, portions of western SD/NE will likely see 15-20 mph winds. Relative humidity values are expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally in the 25-35% range) due to cool temperatures, but may fall to near 20% for some locations. Additionally, recent reports suggest fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support fire spread. While critical conditions are possible, the general expectation is for areas of elevated wind/RH conditions during peak heating hours. Areas further north and east where winds will be strongest should see limited fire concerns given recent and/or anticipated precipitation over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will generally be minimal across much of the country through the extended period, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of the Plains mid-week. An active upper-level regime will persist through the remainder of the week, characterized by the amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest in the wake of today's trough ejection into the Plains. This regime will maintain an unseasonably strong (1000-1005 mb) surface low across the broader Midwest/Great Lakes region, which will support several days of windy conditions across the Plains, Midwest, and the OH River Valley regions. Despite the windy conditions, widespread rainfall will eliminate fuel concerns for most locations with the exception of western NE/SD where the probability of wetting rainfall through mid-week is low. Elsewhere, upper ridging over the Four Corners and northern Rockies will help maintain rain chances along the West coast, and dry, but relatively calm, conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains through next weekend. ...D3/Wed - Western SD/NE... Breezy gradient winds are expected again on D3/Wednesday across much of the Plains. While the strongest winds are expected to reside across the central Dakotas into the lower MO River Valley, portions of western SD/NE will likely see 15-20 mph winds. Relative humidity values are expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally in the 25-35% range) due to cool temperatures, but may fall to near 20% for some locations. Additionally, recent reports suggest fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support fire spread. While critical conditions are possible, the general expectation is for areas of elevated wind/RH conditions during peak heating hours. Areas further north and east where winds will be strongest should see limited fire concerns given recent and/or anticipated precipitation over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST TX...WESTERN LA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 2234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...east TX...western LA...and far southwest AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181841Z - 182045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a couple tornadic supercells should occur by late afternoon as warm-sector storms intensify ahead of a outflow-reinforced cold front. A tornado watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...As surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as far northeast as the greater Houston Metro Area, warm-sector showers have deepened downstream within the warm conveyor across southeast TX. A 17Z sounding from Texas A&M at CLL well sampled the pre-frontal environment ahead of the outflow-reinforced cold front that has been marching east across east TX. While tropospheric lapse rates are weak, enhanced low-level shear persists where surface winds remain slightly backed ahead of the front (as shown in the 18Z LCH/SHV soundings). Surface winds/low-level flow have slowly veered farther southwest (where temperatures are warmer) per HGX VWP data, suggesting that initial storms might struggle to produce low-level mesocyclones until convection spreads farther northeast. The undercutting nature of the front will also limit tornado potential after passage. The more favorable kinematic/thermodynamic environment will probably become centered across the Sabine Valley in the next couple hours. This corridor will be monitored for a possible tornado watch. ..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29619439 30039508 30969517 32139442 33149415 33439380 33259302 32629270 31939266 30609282 29809328 29619439 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 18 20:05:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more