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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

MD 2233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast TX and far southeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181529Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado and localized damaging wind threat will exist through early afternoon with mesovortices within a line of low-topped convection moving east-northeast across northeast Texas. A watch may be necessary if greater deepening into thunderstorms occurs. DISCUSSION...Several transient and generally weak mesovortices have been noted around the Metroplex with a largely north/south-oriented convective line moving east-northeastward. Low-level shear is quite strong ahead of the line per area VWPs and will remain so into early afternoon. Convective depth has been a limiting factor to more persistent/stronger mesovortices, with a lack of CG lightning production and echo tops to around 25k ft. It appears the northern tip of 67-68 F surface dew points may be necessary for a consistent severe threat. This should tend to ripple slowly southward into early afternoon as the convective line occludes the rich low-level moisture plume emanating north across east TX. ..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32789687 33489682 33939649 34099583 33909504 33469499 32919497 32479503 32069524 31459567 31179641 31449690 32789687 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more