Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A prominent shortwave, embedded within broader troughing over the Pacific Northwest, is forecast to move quickly eastward over parts of the Northern Rockies Monday. At the same time, ridging over the West should continue to weaken as a belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops from the northern Great Basin and into the northern Rockies. Increasing surface winds, and warm/dry conditions will support the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As troughing settles over the West Coast, the mid-level flow will continue to strengthen across the Sierras and northern Great Basin. Surface winds of 15-25 mph appear likely as momentum from aloft mixes down to the surface. Downsloping and continued warm temperatures should keep the air mass quite dry with RH minimums of 15-20% likely. Several hours of widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely from northern CA/NV into parts of southern ID and western WY. A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of a cold front moving onshore Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as a cooler Pacific air mass move in. However, downslope winds of 15-25 mph and recent active fire behavior suggest some fire weather concerns will be possible. ...Northern Rockies... As the shortwave trough approaches the Rockies, westerly flow aloft should quickly increase. Downslope trajectories and intensifying lee troughing will strengthen surface winds to 15-20 MPH across parts of MT and WY. With hot temperatures and little recent rainfall persisting, afternoon RH values should remain quite low, generally below 20-25%. With increasing winds, receptive fuels, and persistent dry conditions, periods of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunder... Across parts of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies, lingering monsoon moisture will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7-1 inch, and increasing mid-level flow supporting faster storm speeds. While there is some potential for drier strikes, fuels across much of the area are less receptive and storms should generally cluster with time. This suggests any dry lightning potential will be limited. ..Lyons.. 09/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify as a shortwave perturbation moves onshore across parts of WA and OR today. As the shortwave trough intensifies, flow aloft should also increase as it overspreads the Northwest and Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty, winds are likely across much of the West, with elevated fire-weather potential. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the cold core of the upper trough moving inland, a thunderstorm may be ongoing through the morning hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Greater storm coverage is expected to develop through the day, as daytime heating and lift from the upper trough interact with deepening mid-level moisture. Model soundings show weak buoyancy atop warm and dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt. With poor precipitation efficiency expected, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms appear likely over receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, a wetter storm mode is expected. A few drier strikes are still possible outside of the wetter cores within receptive fuels, but the coverage of drier storms appears limited. ...Northern Great Basin and the Cascades... As the trough moves inland, a belt of stronger mid-level flow is expected to intensify over parts of the northern Great Basin and the southern Cascades. The stronger flow aloft will support an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge and the increase in downslope winds will favor drier low levels, with RH minimums below 15% likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 09/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify as a shortwave perturbation moves onshore across parts of WA and OR today. As the shortwave trough intensifies, flow aloft should also increase as it overspreads the Northwest and Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty, winds are likely across much of the West, with elevated fire-weather potential. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the cold core of the upper trough moving inland, a thunderstorm may be ongoing through the morning hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Greater storm coverage is expected to develop through the day, as daytime heating and lift from the upper trough interact with deepening mid-level moisture. Model soundings show weak buoyancy atop warm and dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt. With poor precipitation efficiency expected, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms appear likely over receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, a wetter storm mode is expected. A few drier strikes are still possible outside of the wetter cores within receptive fuels, but the coverage of drier storms appears limited. ...Northern Great Basin and the Cascades... As the trough moves inland, a belt of stronger mid-level flow is expected to intensify over parts of the northern Great Basin and the southern Cascades. The stronger flow aloft will support an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge and the increase in downslope winds will favor drier low levels, with RH minimums below 15% likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 09/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify as a shortwave perturbation moves onshore across parts of WA and OR today. As the shortwave trough intensifies, flow aloft should also increase as it overspreads the Northwest and Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty, winds are likely across much of the West, with elevated fire-weather potential. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the cold core of the upper trough moving inland, a thunderstorm may be ongoing through the morning hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Greater storm coverage is expected to develop through the day, as daytime heating and lift from the upper trough interact with deepening mid-level moisture. Model soundings show weak buoyancy atop warm and dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt. With poor precipitation efficiency expected, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms appear likely over receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, a wetter storm mode is expected. A few drier strikes are still possible outside of the wetter cores within receptive fuels, but the coverage of drier storms appears limited. ...Northern Great Basin and the Cascades... As the trough moves inland, a belt of stronger mid-level flow is expected to intensify over parts of the northern Great Basin and the southern Cascades. The stronger flow aloft will support an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge and the increase in downslope winds will favor drier low levels, with RH minimums below 15% likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 09/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify as a shortwave perturbation moves onshore across parts of WA and OR today. As the shortwave trough intensifies, flow aloft should also increase as it overspreads the Northwest and Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty, winds are likely across much of the West, with elevated fire-weather potential. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the cold core of the upper trough moving inland, a thunderstorm may be ongoing through the morning hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Greater storm coverage is expected to develop through the day, as daytime heating and lift from the upper trough interact with deepening mid-level moisture. Model soundings show weak buoyancy atop warm and dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt. With poor precipitation efficiency expected, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms appear likely over receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, a wetter storm mode is expected. A few drier strikes are still possible outside of the wetter cores within receptive fuels, but the coverage of drier storms appears limited. ...Northern Great Basin and the Cascades... As the trough moves inland, a belt of stronger mid-level flow is expected to intensify over parts of the northern Great Basin and the southern Cascades. The stronger flow aloft will support an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge and the increase in downslope winds will favor drier low levels, with RH minimums below 15% likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 09/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward into the northern Plains. No severe weather is expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Northeast on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near the trough westward into the lower Great Lakes, aided by strong large-scale ascent and cold air aloft. Thunderstorms will also be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast on the northern edge of a moist airmass. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Four Corners, with more isolated storms forming over the north-central states. No severe weather is expected across the continental United States Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward into the northern Plains. No severe weather is expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Northeast on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near the trough westward into the lower Great Lakes, aided by strong large-scale ascent and cold air aloft. Thunderstorms will also be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast on the northern edge of a moist airmass. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Four Corners, with more isolated storms forming over the north-central states. No severe weather is expected across the continental United States Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward into the northern Plains. No severe weather is expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Northeast on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near the trough westward into the lower Great Lakes, aided by strong large-scale ascent and cold air aloft. Thunderstorms will also be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast on the northern edge of a moist airmass. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Four Corners, with more isolated storms forming over the north-central states. No severe weather is expected across the continental United States Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward into the northern Plains. No severe weather is expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Northeast on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near the trough westward into the lower Great Lakes, aided by strong large-scale ascent and cold air aloft. Thunderstorms will also be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast on the northern edge of a moist airmass. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Four Corners, with more isolated storms forming over the north-central states. No severe weather is expected across the continental United States Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves generally northwestward,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 7 22:31:02 UTC 2024.