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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0710 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MWL TO 15 N OKC AND 40 ESE SPS TO 25 NE OKC. ..KERR..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-083-085-087-099-109-181440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0710 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MWL TO 15 N OKC AND 40 ESE SPS TO 25 NE OKC. ..KERR..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-083-085-087-099-109-181440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2232 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 710... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Texas through central/eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 710... Valid 181225Z - 181430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes appears in the process of diminishing, as storms progress into and east of the I-35 corridor. A new severe weather watch is not currently anticipated in the near term. DISCUSSION...The narrow, strongly forced squall line has undergone at least some recent general weakening. Based on latest Rapid Refresh output, it appears to have overtaken the narrow pre-frontal plume of higher northward returning low-level moisture content, and advanced well ahead of the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling. In the presence of weaker lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and a residual stable near-surface layer, the potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps brief tornadoes seems likely to diminish as activity spreads across and east of the I-35 corridor, particularly to the north of the Red River. More uncertainty exists to the south of the Red River, within continuing better low-level moisture return from the northwestern Gulf. However, potential for appreciable thunderstorm intensification may await destabilization aided by daytime heating, and forcing associated with the next perturbation progressing through the base of the larger-scale mid-level troughing pivoting east-northeast of the South Plains. ..Kerr.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36119770 36469699 35829616 33879644 32699689 32189753 32139849 33169829 35109772 36119770 Read more

WW 710 TORNADO OK TX 180800Z - 181600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Monday morning from 200 AM until 1000 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeastward this morning across western north Texas into southwest and central Oklahoma. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph will be a threat with this line, along with a few embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Oklahoma City OK to 20 miles south of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 709... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

WW 0710 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BWD TO 20 SW SPS TO 10 SSW CHK TO 10 NNE CHK TO 25 NW OKC. ..KERR..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC017-019-027-049-051-067-073-083-085-087-099-109-137-181340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON KINGFISHER LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TXC077-133-237-337-363-181340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2231 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 710... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of northwestern Texas and southwest into central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 710... Valid 181009Z - 181215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues. SUMMARY...A narrow squall line may continue to pose a risk for localized damaging wind gusts and isolated brief tornadoes while approaching the I-35 corridor, including the Oklahoma City metro, through 6-8 AM CST. DISCUSSION...A narrow, strongly forced squall line, with embedded meso-gamma scale cyclonic circulations continues propagating north-northeastward into/across the Red River Valley vicinity. Downstream of mid-level troughing taking on a more negative tilt into and through the Texas South Plains, models indicate that this may be maintained at least into the 12-14Z time frame. Although boundary-layer instability remains limited across southwest Oklahoma into the I-35 corridor of central Oklahoma, stronger surface pressure falls in advance of the deepening surface cyclone may allow for sufficient boundary-layer warming and moistening to maintain a risk for damaging wind gusts and additional brief tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35549918 35769737 33589767 32939957 34769884 35549918 Read more