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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 18:05:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 18:05:05 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231758 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65 to 85 kt. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast. Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to show landfall occurring a bit sooner. Residents of Mexico in the hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231757 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 16 45(61) 10(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) P MALDONADO 50 1 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P MALDONADO 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P ANGEL 34 2 25(27) 33(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231757
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane John, located just south of southern Mexico.

East-Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable
for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231756 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231756 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico tonight, and move inland on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area early Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 17.9, -81.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ65 KNHC 231747 TCUEP5 Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1145 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that John continues to rapidly strengthen with estimated maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC) to reflect this intensity change and update the track and intensity forecast. The special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory. SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... As of 6:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 15.9, -98.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more