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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 17 22:35:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 17 22:35:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. Read more