Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more