SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ...South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected to form along and near the front across parts of the northern Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region, affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. ...Central and Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest mid-level flow from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. A weakly unstable airmass is located ahead of the trough from Wyoming northward into southern and central Montana, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing near the instability axis. RAP forecast soundings this evening from west of Billings, Montana southward to near Jackson, Wyoming have MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse near 8 C/km. This environment should continue to support an isolated severe threat. Although instability is the limiting factor, the threat could continue for a few more hours this evening before surface temperatures cool significantly. The primary threat will be for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will be possible from south-central Montana into northwest Wyoming, where large-scale ascent appears to be maximized ahead of the approaching upper-level trough. The severe threat could impact areas further to the east in the northern High Plains later this evening. ..Broyles.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. ...Central and Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest mid-level flow from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. A weakly unstable airmass is located ahead of the trough from Wyoming northward into southern and central Montana, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing near the instability axis. RAP forecast soundings this evening from west of Billings, Montana southward to near Jackson, Wyoming have MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse near 8 C/km. This environment should continue to support an isolated severe threat. Although instability is the limiting factor, the threat could continue for a few more hours this evening before surface temperatures cool significantly. The primary threat will be for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will be possible from south-central Montana into northwest Wyoming, where large-scale ascent appears to be maximized ahead of the approaching upper-level trough. The severe threat could impact areas further to the east in the northern High Plains later this evening. ..Broyles.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of the central and northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. ...Central and Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest mid-level flow from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. A weakly unstable airmass is located ahead of the trough from Wyoming northward into southern and central Montana, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing near the instability axis. RAP forecast soundings this evening from west of Billings, Montana southward to near Jackson, Wyoming have MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse near 8 C/km. This environment should continue to support an isolated severe threat. Although instability is the limiting factor, the threat could continue for a few more hours this evening before surface temperatures cool significantly. The primary threat will be for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will be possible from south-central Montana into northwest Wyoming, where large-scale ascent appears to be maximized ahead of the approaching upper-level trough. The severe threat could impact areas further to the east in the northern High Plains later this evening. ..Broyles.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC MD 2046

10 months 2 weeks ago
MD 2046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL WY
Mesoscale Discussion 2046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Areas affected...South-central MT and central WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032047Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible into early evening, as scattered thunderstorms spread east of the higher terrain in south-central Montana to central Wyoming. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has become scattered across the northern Rockies, downstream of the smoke-filled mid-level low gradually pivoting east over central ID. The leading convection, exiting the Absaroka Range, should spread towards the greater Billings area in the next couple hours. This activity should tend to weaken over southeast MT/northeast WY as it outpaces the eastern gradient of the weak buoyancy plume. Farther south, convection over western WY should similarly spread into parts of the Wind River Basin. With surface temperature-dew point spreads commonly from 40-50 F, strong to severe gusts of 55-70 mph will be the primary hazard into early evening. This threat should remain relatively localized and sporadic owing to weak lower-level northwesterlies beneath 30-45 kt mid-level southwesterlies, per the Billings and Riverton VWPs. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 46431077 47151071 47390960 46840798 45350675 44150666 42760676 41970728 41770826 42240926 43420920 45210949 46431077 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more