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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 16 23:50:02 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sat Nov 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of
days while the system moves slowly eastward or east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more