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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more