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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OHIO INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A cold front will move through parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and southern Plains. Farther south, a weak surface wave may develop along a front near the Gulf Coast and move northeastward along or just offshore of the Carolina coast late Friday night into early Saturday morning. To the west, an upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, while a shortwave trough begins to move inland across northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. ...Ohio and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of Ohio and vicinity, as the amplifying upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the region. Low-level moisture will likely remain rather limited ahead of the front, though relatively strong heating/mixing will steepen low-level lapse rates. Somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy will reside near and immediately behind the front, with MLCAPE potentially approaching or exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low-level flow will likely remain rather weak, but gradually increasing effective shear (generally into the 25-35 kt range) could support a few stronger storms capable of at least isolated damaging winds during the afternoon and perhaps into the evening. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with any stronger discrete cells. ...Gulf Coast to the Carolina Coast... Some increase in low-level flow is possible in the vicinity of the frontal wave that may develop near the Gulf Coast and move toward the coastal Carolinas overnight. While this could be accompanied by some increase in low-level shear/SRH, buoyancy is currently expected to remain quite weak, so potential for organized convection inland appears relatively uncertain/limited at this time. ..Dean.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today across part of northeastern New Mexico. ...Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today across part of northeastern New Mexico. ...Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today across part of northeastern New Mexico. ...Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today across part of northeastern New Mexico. ...Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today across part of northeastern New Mexico. ...Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Rockies northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Rockies/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted upper-level trough over the north-central Rockies, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is located from eastern Colorado northeastward into southwest Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing behind the front from Colorado and Wyoming eastward into the central High Plains. RAP analysis has weak instability in place across the central High Plains and central Rockies, with MLCAPE generally in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings across this weakly unstable airmass this evening have 0-3 km shear mostly between 25 and 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. As the upper-level trough moves eastward this evening, large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within and near a pocket of moderate instability over eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and southwest Minnesota. These storms could also be associated with a potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. The greatest threat should be with cells that develop near the front late this evening, where instability is expected to be the strongest. ..Broyles.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Rockies northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Rockies/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted upper-level trough over the north-central Rockies, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is located from eastern Colorado northeastward into southwest Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing behind the front from Colorado and Wyoming eastward into the central High Plains. RAP analysis has weak instability in place across the central High Plains and central Rockies, with MLCAPE generally in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings across this weakly unstable airmass this evening have 0-3 km shear mostly between 25 and 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. As the upper-level trough moves eastward this evening, large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within and near a pocket of moderate instability over eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and southwest Minnesota. These storms could also be associated with a potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. The greatest threat should be with cells that develop near the front late this evening, where instability is expected to be the strongest. ..Broyles.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Rockies northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Rockies/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted upper-level trough over the north-central Rockies, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is located from eastern Colorado northeastward into southwest Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing behind the front from Colorado and Wyoming eastward into the central High Plains. RAP analysis has weak instability in place across the central High Plains and central Rockies, with MLCAPE generally in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings across this weakly unstable airmass this evening have 0-3 km shear mostly between 25 and 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. As the upper-level trough moves eastward this evening, large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within and near a pocket of moderate instability over eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and southwest Minnesota. These storms could also be associated with a potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. The greatest threat should be with cells that develop near the front late this evening, where instability is expected to be the strongest. ..Broyles.. 09/05/2024 Read more