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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more