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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over eastern NC before then continuing eastward into the western Atlantic. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone early Friday morning, but any higher storm coverage is expected to remain well offshore. The upper pattern farther west across the majority of the CONUS is expected to amplify as a strong trough gradually progresses from the West Coast to the Intermountain West, and downstream ridging across the Plains builds as it moves through the MS Valley. By early Saturday morning, the upper troughing is forecast to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off southern CA/northern Baja Peninsula, and upper ridging will likely extend from the central Gulf of Mexico through the Upper Great Lakes into northwestern Ontario. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. A dry continental airmass and warm mid-level temperatures will remain over the Plains, precluding any buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over eastern NC before then continuing eastward into the western Atlantic. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone early Friday morning, but any higher storm coverage is expected to remain well offshore. The upper pattern farther west across the majority of the CONUS is expected to amplify as a strong trough gradually progresses from the West Coast to the Intermountain West, and downstream ridging across the Plains builds as it moves through the MS Valley. By early Saturday morning, the upper troughing is forecast to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off southern CA/northern Baja Peninsula, and upper ridging will likely extend from the central Gulf of Mexico through the Upper Great Lakes into northwestern Ontario. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. A dry continental airmass and warm mid-level temperatures will remain over the Plains, precluding any buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over eastern NC before then continuing eastward into the western Atlantic. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone early Friday morning, but any higher storm coverage is expected to remain well offshore. The upper pattern farther west across the majority of the CONUS is expected to amplify as a strong trough gradually progresses from the West Coast to the Intermountain West, and downstream ridging across the Plains builds as it moves through the MS Valley. By early Saturday morning, the upper troughing is forecast to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off southern CA/northern Baja Peninsula, and upper ridging will likely extend from the central Gulf of Mexico through the Upper Great Lakes into northwestern Ontario. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. A dry continental airmass and warm mid-level temperatures will remain over the Plains, precluding any buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over eastern NC before then continuing eastward into the western Atlantic. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone early Friday morning, but any higher storm coverage is expected to remain well offshore. The upper pattern farther west across the majority of the CONUS is expected to amplify as a strong trough gradually progresses from the West Coast to the Intermountain West, and downstream ridging across the Plains builds as it moves through the MS Valley. By early Saturday morning, the upper troughing is forecast to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off southern CA/northern Baja Peninsula, and upper ridging will likely extend from the central Gulf of Mexico through the Upper Great Lakes into northwestern Ontario. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. A dry continental airmass and warm mid-level temperatures will remain over the Plains, precluding any buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more