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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight, posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts. ...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight, posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts. ...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight, posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts. ...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight, posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts. ...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight, posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts. ...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024 Read more

MD 2226 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Areas affected...much of southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 140206Z - 140430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out near the warm front from southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama through late evening. A brief tornado or damaging gust would be possible. DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest oriented line of thunderstorms currently extends from northwest AL and northern MS into far eastern LA, with indications of stronger activity along the cold front and approaching the warm front. This warm front separates the robust moisture to the south with 70s F dewpoints, while north of there into east-central MS and much of central AL, temperatures are cool and in the 60s. Meanwhile, southerly winds around 850 mb over 40 kt are forecast through evening, which may yield some northward advancement of the warm front. Low-level shear in this vicinity will also favor rotation given a strong enough storm, with effective SRH of several hundred m2/s2. As such, the area will be monitored for additional development over the warm sector, which could potentially interact with the higher shear zone along and south of the warm front. ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31428752 30968762 30698781 30518817 30498882 30978981 31329023 31679021 31959004 32518972 32548913 32338835 31868779 31428752 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024 Read more