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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 13 23:40:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 13 23:40:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2225 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132024Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should gradually mature this afternoon. Tornadoes are possible with transiently organized supercells/clusters. Conditions are being monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed several clusters of scattered storms ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico, LA Delta, and ahead of a cold front over the lower MS Valley. East of the front and a weak surface low, inland advection of middle 70s F surface dewpoints, and scattered cloud breaks is contributing to weak/moderate destabilization along and south of a diffuse warm front. Scattered storms are ongoing near the front, and farther south into the Gulf along a subtle pre-frontal confluence zone. As mid-level ascent ahead of an upper trough over the southern Plains shifts eastward, convection is forecast to gradually intensify and increase in coverage. While the stronger forcing for ascent is likely to lag north and west of the more buoyant warm sector, convection should gradually intensify as the front progresses and low-level/deep-layer shear increase. The 12z LIX and area model soundings show low-level hodographs increasing in size with relatively large low-level shear (0-1km SRH ~200 m2/s2). Shear profiles are supportive of updraft rotation with transient supercells or organized clusters. Backed low-level flow near the warm front could support a risk for tornadoes or damaging gusts with the more strongly rotating cells. Confidence in the overall convective evolution and the magnitude of the severe risk remains low. With poor low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy, storm evolution/maturation is expected to be gradual. Recent HRRR guidance suggests additional storms are likely to develop along the cold front and move onshore within the free warm sector. Numerous storm interactions are possible, complicating the convective mode. Still, strong low-level shear and sufficient buoyancy for stronger updrafts may support a risk for damaging gusts and some tornado risk into this evening. Conditions are being monitored for possible WW issuance. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29129028 30239112 31179125 32138986 31768846 30418800 29718874 29068905 29268984 29129028 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more