Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 3 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 3 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL WY
Mesoscale Discussion 2046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Areas affected...South-central MT and central WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032047Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible into early evening, as scattered thunderstorms spread east of the higher terrain in south-central Montana to central Wyoming. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has become scattered across the northern Rockies, downstream of the smoke-filled mid-level low gradually pivoting east over central ID. The leading convection, exiting the Absaroka Range, should spread towards the greater Billings area in the next couple hours. This activity should tend to weaken over southeast MT/northeast WY as it outpaces the eastern gradient of the weak buoyancy plume. Farther south, convection over western WY should similarly spread into parts of the Wind River Basin. With surface temperature-dew point spreads commonly from 40-50 F, strong to severe gusts of 55-70 mph will be the primary hazard into early evening. This threat should remain relatively localized and sporadic owing to weak lower-level northwesterlies beneath 30-45 kt mid-level southwesterlies, per the Billings and Riverton VWPs. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 46431077 47151071 47390960 46840798 45350675 44150666 42760676 41970728 41770826 42240926 43420920 45210949 46431077 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8 /Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more