Aggregator

Elwood canceled its Fourth of July fireworks show due to exceptionally dry conditions. The July 3rd fireworks show at Johnson Lake has been postponed until the weather and conditions improve. KSNB Local 4 (Hastings, Neb.), June 23, 2022

Low rainfall has caused weed problems to develop in some fields in Vigo and Parke counties because some chemicals in herbicides need rain to be effective. For late planted crops due to heavy spring rain, the lack of rain is limiting crop growth. MyWabashValley.com (Terre Haute, Ind.), June 23, 2022

A corn and sorghum grower in Nueces County anticipates getting just 25% of the yield that he would like from his corn, due to drought. Sixty percent of the cotton in Nueces County is not usable; 60% of corn in the county is “very poor,” and a lot of fields are in the 750 lb. range, although most sorghum fields yield 4,500-5,000 lbs. per acre. Rain cannot help the corn at this point. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 23, 2022

Amid drought, when fires can spark more easily and be more difficult to contain, the San Jose Fire Department is understaffed and has expressed concern about being able to adequately respond to fires. Many calls have come in, which places heavy demand on the shrinking group of available firefighters. Firefighting is a stressful job, overtime can increase the strain, and burnout is a big concern. NBC Bay Area (San Jose, Calif.) June 23, 2022

Drought in the Carolinas has stunted the growth of corn, cotton and soybeans. Water levels were falling in streams, creeks and retention ponds. The fire risk is higher than normal. WMBF-TV NBC Myrtle Beach (S.C.), June 23, 2022

The 3,209-acre Kinsley Fire, about 60 miles northeast of Ely, Nev., is 100-percent contained.The fire, in the Antelope Range on the Elko-White Pine County line, was first reported shortly before 1 p.m., Friday, June 17. The cause is under

Seventeen counties in southeast Texas have burn bans in effect, due to the hot, dry weather. The counties include Fort Bend, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Wharton, Jackson, Calhoun, Waller, Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Liberty, San Jacinto, Walker, Trinity and Polk. KTRK ABC 13(Houston, Texas), June 23, 2022

Utah Governor Spencer Cox and firefighters appealed to the public to skip personal fireworks this year. All of Utah is in drought and has already been battling wildfires. Some cities, such as South Jordan have begun enacting fireworks restrictions, due to the wildfire risk and limited firefighting resources. KSTU-FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), June 23, 2022

Intensifying drought conditions have led officials in Williamson County to disallow sales of stick rockets and missiles with fins or rudders. In Travis County, the Texas Pyrotechnic Association also voluntarily agreed to not sell certain products in the county, due to the fire risk. Both Williamson and Travis counties have bans on outdoor burning. KVUE News Online (Texas), June 23, 2022

Corn in western Kentucky has gray, folded leaves as just 50% to 75% of normal rain has fallen in the past 30 days. The heat and low rainfall may be reducing yields. Louisville Courier Journal (Ky.), June 23, 2022

The fire was initially reported on the 10th of June at 4:28 PM. As of June 18th, the fire was estimated to be 3,704 acres and is burning in the Wallow Fire burn scar near Fish Creek and Forest Service Road 25B, approximately 20 miles SW of Alpine, AZ. The Fish Fire is burning mixed conifer, dead and down trees, and abundant standing snags. A dry lightning storm was occurring in the area at the time, and a lightning strike has been determined to be the cause. Fire activity is flanking and backing through heavy burn scar and grass. The fire is being managed through confine and contain strategies. A contain strategy is a wildfire response strategy of restricting a wildfire to a defined area, primarily using natural barriers that are expected to restrict the spread of the wildfire under the prevailing and forecasted weather conditions. There may be additional suppression activities, such as burnout and line construction, in order to confine the fire to the containment boundary. Due to...

 Crew worked through the night to contain fire.  Fire acres mapped at 370 acres and 100% contained.  Will continue to monitor and patrol due to fire weather and fuels conditions continue to deteriorate due to

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF KS/NE/SD/MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over parts of the central Great Plains and the central portions of Minnesota to South Dakota, mainly this evening. ...Northern KS/southern NE... Low-level warm theta-e advection has maintained a swath of elevated convection centered on northeast to east-central KS, just northeast of the surface warm front. To the south and west of this activity, robust boundary-layer heating is underway, likely increasing baroclinicity across the front by late afternoon. A low-amplitude mid-level perturbation over the southern Rockies should be favorably timed to aid in scattered high-based convection developing along the lee trough in western KS to its intersection with the warm front near southwest NE. While morning guidance varies substantially with the overall thermodynamic environment, the 12Z HRW-NSSL/ARW and NAM-Nest all suggest potential for at least a couple long-lived supercells slowly spreading east-southeast from southwest NE across northern KS. Midlevel flow will not be strong, although speed shear into the upper levels will favor large hail growth. Hodographs will depend on the degree of low-level easterly flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front, which guidance also varies substantially on. Even so, an increase in a nocturnal southerly low-level jet will likely assist in potential for a small MCS this evening. Given the conditionally favorable setup, potential for sig hail and wind is apparent in addition to a tornadic supercell or two. ...Central portions of MN/SD... A weak surface trough, associated with a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over northern ON, will drift southeast across northeast to west-central MN, with a separate surface trough extending north from western KS/NE into central SD. An increase in low-level moisture from the south and southwest, combined with strong daytime heating and modest convergence along the troughs, should support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon to early evening. While model moisture forecasts are likely overdone, and weak large-scale forcing for ascent limits confidence, steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear will support conditional potential for a few supercells and multicell clustering. Most morning CAM guidance suggests a narrow corridor of cat 2/SLGT-risk caliber storms should form with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. ...Central/eastern MT... A mid-level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary jet crossing northern MT through tonight. Associated surface cold front will push east and provide a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across central to eastern MT during the late afternoon and evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited with boundary-layer dew points in the 40s, yielding MLCAPE to only around 500 J/kg. Still, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and some increase in mid-level flow will support the threat for isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Eastern NV/western UT... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Sierra NV will gradually progress east across parts of NV into western UT through tonight. Moderate forcing for ascent ahead of this trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will support scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Limited boundary-layer moisture will result in only meager MLCAPE and effective bulk shear will remain weak. But deeply mixed inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support a threat for isolated severe gusts. ..Grams/Weinman.. 06/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 23 16:35:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 23 16:35:01 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 15:23:59 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 32(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 12(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 22(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling to produce much convection near its center. That said, new convection has recently been developing just to the east of the center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get some scatterometer data later today. The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest. There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track forecast is therefore higher than it had been. The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen, with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become post-tropical by day 5. The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.