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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 19 13:57:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail to tennis ball size and severe gusts to 75 mph are possible, mainly this afternoon into early tonight across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. More isolated storms with strong/damaging wind gusts may occur from western Colorado to western South Dakota, and across the Florida Peninsula. ...Eastern MT/western ND through early tonight... The deep midlevel trough over the Great Basin is beginning to move slowly eastward, and an embedded speed maxima over UT this morning will eject north-northeastward on its eastern periphery toward eastern MT. At the surface, a cyclone will develop slowly north-northeastward along a baroclinic zone from southwest ND toward southwest MB. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will persist in a corridor well east of the surface cyclone and a trailing lee trough across the High Plains, while dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s immediately west of the low track in the northeasterly surface flow across eastern MT and northwest ND. The presence of moderate buoyancy coincident with this northeasterly flow contributes to long hodographs and strong storm-relative inflow favorable for supercells, with large CAPE and much weaker deep-layer vertical shear farther east in the warm sector across ND. Thus, the primary threat area for bowing segments/supercells with the potential to produce very large hail near tennis ball size and severe gusts near 75 mph will be from eastern MT into western ND, near and just west of the cyclone track/front this afternoon through early tonight. ...Western SD/eastern WY to western CO through late evening... Eastward progress of the Great Basin midlevel trough will bring stronger midlevel flow farther east compared to previous days. Despite widespread clouds to slow surface heating, long/straight hodographs could support some organized storm structures within the monsoonal moisture plume across western CO, with some potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts. Farther northeast, midlevel flow will be a little weaker, but inverted-v profiles will favor a few strong-severe outflow gusts with high-based storm clusters late this afternoon/evening near the lee trough. ...Central/western FL Peninsula this afternoon... Another day of largely diurnal convection is expected, with thunderstorm development focused by a weak front drifting into north FL, and local sea breeze circulations farther south. Weak northeasterly midlevel flow suggests that multicell clusters will spread southwestward this afternoon. The strongest storms will have the potential for a few damaging downbursts given precipitation loading with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and downdrafts aided by DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. ..Thompson/Dean.. 06/19/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Celia, located a short distance south of Guatemala.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

The Davis School District trimmed water use by 60% in 2021 by installing drought-tolerant lawns and landscaping with customized irrigation. This year, the school district intends to take the lessons learned last year and apply them at nearly 100 district properties with the aim of halving outdoor water use. The district uses a drought-tolerant lawn of Kentucky 31 that uses less water and only needs to be cut once a year. A new irrigation “smart clock system” would connect with weather stations and delay irrigation if rain falls. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), June 18, 2022

The Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to the Yogi Fire for assistance shortly after 1:00 pm on Monday, June 13th and remains in unified command with Bastrop Emergency Services District No. 2. The fire began east of Gotier Trace and South Old Potato Road and quickly presented a threat to homes in the area. As the fire moved north, local law enforcement conducted door-to-door evacuation notifications. Residents in the area of Gotier Trace, South Old Potato Road, east to Old Pin Oak, and north to Lois Lane were allowed to return home at 4:30. Initial fire behavior was moderate, with low to moderate rate of spread when crews arrived on scene. The fire is presented moderate resistance to control, with some short range spotting and torching of both live and dead vegetation. During initial attack, TAMFS equipment included 3 SEATs, a Type 1 helicopter, an air attack platform, 3 bulldozers and overhead. Local crews from Bastrop County fire departments have heavy equipment, fire engines,...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 14:39:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:31:18 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181439 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet, this activity does not have much organization and already appears to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is changed little from the previous forecast. Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity, and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 90.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are decreasing. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 90.0 West. The depression is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A further turn to the west is expected by tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 the center of Celia was located near 12.8, -90.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE DECREASING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 89.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 90.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 14:33:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:24:06 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning. Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be positioned closer to the various consensus aids. Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should subside tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181431 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 11(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 181431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 the center of Blas was located near 18.0, -111.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 181431 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 18 13:25:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 18 13:25:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR FL...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO WESTERN AR/EASTERN OK...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon/evening from the eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas vicinity southeastward to the central Gulf Coast, and across the Florida Peninsula. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main hazards with these storms. Isolated severe storms may also occur over portions of northwestern Montana, accompanied by risk for both large hail and damaging winds. ...AR/LA/MS and FL this afternoon/evening... In conjunction with an amplifying midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface cold front will move southward into FL and southwestward across AR/MS/LA this afternoon/evening. Weak lift along the front, in combination with large MLCAPE (3500-4000 J/kg) and DCAPE (greater than 1000 J/kg), will support widely scattered storms by mid-late afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated damaging downbursts from western AR/eastern OK into southern MS/southwest AL. Storm coverage will be somewhat greater across the FL peninsula as a remnant MCV moves southward from southeast GA, and low-level lift is provided by the surface cold front and the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea breezes. Though vertical shear will be weak, thermodynamic profiles will favor isolated damaging downburst winds with multicell clusters moving southward across FL this afternoon. ...Northwest MT... A slow-moving, north-south front will remain across northwest MT through tonight, in the southerly flow regime to the east of a deep midlevel trough near the Pacific Northwest coast. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s and surface heating on the east edge of the main cloud band will result in modest destabilization today, and thunderstorm development will be possible along the front/differential heating zone this afternoon/evening. Though buoyancy will be modest, very long hodographs will support the potential for a supercell or two, with the attendant threats of isolated large hail and damaging gusts. ...Southern/central Rockies to the northern High Plains... The Southwest monsoon is underway with a plume of PW near or above 1 inch across eastern AZ/western NM, between the upper trough along the Pacific coast and the ridge over the Plains. Gusty outflow winds will be possible from the Four Corners northward where pockets of stronger surface heating and steeper lapse rates coincide with convective clusters. However, it appears unnecessary to add a 5% wind/Marginal risk area to such a large area to account for sparse damaging/severe gusts. Strong surface heating and deep mixing could support isolated high-based storms this afternoon/evening along a lee trough from the NE Panhandle into southwest SD. Inverted-v profiles suggest some potential for strong outflow gusts, but the threat for severe storms appears too low to warrant the introduction of 5% wind probabilities/Marginal risk. ..Thompson/Dean.. 06/18/2022 Read more