Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Celia,
located less than one hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
El Salvador.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Peach growers in Fredericksburg have been irrigating their trees for weeks because they have only received 5.5 inches of rain since the start of the year. The fruit is small and is not ripening. Low production prompted the owner to forego self-peach-picking this year. Another area farmer stated that the dry conditions led to low product and caused him to close his business for the season. KSAT-TV ABC 12 San Antonio (Texas), June 17, 2022

CURRENT STATUS OF THE SIERRA FIRE:  Updated June 17, 2022- 11 acres- 97% contained- Rowher Flats OHV Trail #3414W27 has reopened. - More info: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8164/BACKGROUND: A new fire was reported to the Angeles National Forest Emergency Communications Center on June 15 at 2:27 p.m. It appears to have started in the Bouquet Canyon/Spunky Canyon area of the forest. Firefighting units from the U.S. Forest Service and Los Angeles Fire Department arrived on the scene quickly. This fire affects commuters who use Bouquet Canyon Road to travel between the Lancaster/Palmdale area and the Santa Clarita area, as well as nearby cabin owners, and perhaps a few weekday recreationists, Smoke could affect nearby residents in the Santa Clarita Valley. See attached GOOGLE map.As of June 15 p.m. at 5:15 p.m. 11 acres 25% contained  250 firefighters on the scene  6 helicopters  3 airtankers, including one VLAT Los Angeles County Fire Department is a cooperator.On June 15,...

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..06/17/22 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-115-137-155-171640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-037-041-043-045-049- 051-053-057-063-065-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-087-089-095-097- 109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-147-151-153- 155-159-161-165-167-169-171-173-175-181-187-189-191-193-195-197- 199-201-203-205-207-209-217-229-231-235-237-239-171640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 17 15:40:04 UTC 2022.

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MKL TO 25 SSE CKV TO 15 NE BNA TO 25 NE BNA TO 25 SE BWG. ..BUNTING..06/17/22 ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...MEG...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-021-025-027-031-035-037-039- 041-043-049-051-055-061-065-081-083-085-087-093-099-101-103-105- 107-111-115-117-119-121-123-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145- 149-151-153-159-169-173-175-177-181-185-187-189-171640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BENTON BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON CHEATHAM CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY HAMILTON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON KNOX LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN LOUDON MCMINN MACON MARION MARSHALL MAURY MEIGS MONROE MOORE MORGAN OVERTON PERRY PICKETT POLK PUTNAM RHEA ROANE RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH Read more

WW 382 SEVERE TSTM TN 171400Z - 171900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 900 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...MCS in southwest Kentucky will spread southeast across portions of Tennessee through early afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west of Chattanooga TN to 40 miles northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW SDF TO 15 ESE SDF TO 35 NE SDF TO 50 NNE SDF TO 45 W LUK. ..BUNTING..06/17/22 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC003-009-031-061-085-099-103-123-141-179-211-213-215-227- 171640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON HART HENRY LARUE LOGAN NELSON SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 381 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 171105Z - 171600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and northern Kentucky Extreme southeastern Missouri * Effective this Friday morning from 605 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A convective system with a history of severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph will continue to spread eastward and southeastward into southern Illinois/Indiana and adjacent areas of Kentucky through this morning. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Salem IL to 30 miles northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 380... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in latest guidance. Very dry conditions were analyzed over southern NV into southwest UT this morning, and regional VWPs have sampled very strong (40-65 mph) winds within the lowest 1-2 km. These winds are already beginning to mix to the surface where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s, and will become more widespread through the late morning and early afternoon hours. These observations maintain high confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions today with the potential for periods of extremely critical conditions along the NV/UT border. Other forecast concerns remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough along the West Coast will progress into the Great Basin today. Strong mid-level winds will overspread the region in conjunction with a surface trough deepening within the Basin into the northern Rockies. To the east, an upper-level ridge will remain across the Plains. Mid-level moisture will push westward and a modest lee trough will develop in the central/northern High Plains. ...Great Basin... Very strong surface winds of 25-35 mph, primarily in Nevada/Utah, are expected to develop within the region by afternoon. Regional soundings from Thursday night show single digit RH and this can be expected to continue today. Areas of extremely critical fire weather are possible given these meteorological conditions. Fuel sparseness where these conditions are expected may limit a greater fire weather risk. Mid/upper-level clouds will also be on the increase during the day, particularly in the westernmost areas. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible along the western periphery of the mid-level moisture. Areas most likely to be affected are from the Four Corners into southwestern Wyoming. ...Central High Plains... Elevated to near-critical fire weather is expected for parts of the region. Afternoon RH will fall to 15-20% with the lee trough promoting 15-20 mph winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:09:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:28:30 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The satellite presentation of the system has improved somewhat this morning, with a well-defined band in its western semicircle and some deep convection persisting near and just west of the estimated center. Subjective intensity estimates are up to 35 kt from SAB and 45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS were in the 40-45 kt range. There were also a few wind retrievals from overnight scatterometer imagery in the 34-36 kt range. The initial intensity has been set to a possibly conservative 35 kt for this advisory, upgrading Tropical Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Celia. Celia still appears to be drifting generally northward, with the initial motion estimated at 020/4 kt. As discussed in the prior advisory, the storm is currently embedded within weak steering currents as a result of being a small vortex embedded within a much broader low-level cyclonic circulation centered over Central America, causing Celia to drift just east of due north over the past 12-18 hours. Possibly due to this small size, the model guidance does not have a good handle on the current position or structure of the cyclone. For example, the latest GFS run places Celia about 150 nm west of its actual position. The latest ECMWF run was closer to the correct position but barely depicts Celia as a distinct entity within the larger gyre circulation. Even the higher-resolution regional hurricane models are struggling to depict this cyclone. Given these difficulties, the short-term track forecast is quite problematic, with the track guidance spread more than double the typical climatological value in the 24-48 hour period. Generally the guidance has shifted further south this cycle, when Celia is expected to be steered by a building mid-level ridge and perhaps some low-level flow enhanced by a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The track forecast this advisory follows suit, and is further south than the previous advisory after 36 hours, but still is not as far south as the reliable consensus aids. Given all the complicating factors above, this track forecast is of low confidence. The substantial uncertainty in the track forecast also applies to the current intensity forecast with Celia. Easterly vertical wind shear is already starting to increase over the system, as suggested by both GFS- and ECMWF- based SHIPS guidance, and is forecast to be above 20 kt in 24-36 hours. The GFS model, which seems to be best capturing Celia's current structure, quickly shears off the current deep convection to the east due to the increasing upper-level flow. In addition, current sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) under the cyclone are already marginal (26-27 C) and could cool further over the next 36 hours given Celia's slow motion. The intensity guidance this cycle is lower than the previous one for the first 48-72 hours, and only some slight additional intensification is anticipated before these negative factors limit Celia's intensity. Towards the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to decrease and SSTs warm, which could provide an opportunity for the storm to began intensifying again. However, it is also possible the negative factors indicated above may result in Celia weakening or degenerating into a remnant low, devoid of organized convection, as suggested by the ECMWF solution. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.6N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 171451 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) P SAN JOSE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 90W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 399 WTPZ33 KNHC 171450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CELIA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 89.3W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 89.3 West. Celia is drifting toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast today followed by little change in strength over the weekend. Celia is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Storm Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CELIA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 the center of Celia was located near 11.6, -89.3 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 171449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 89.3W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 89.3W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 89.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 171445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Blas has become a little better organized this morning. Microwave data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved bands, especially south of the center. Since then, deep convection has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 12 kt. Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. The hurricane is expected to slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level flow. This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but that is not expected to last much longer. The hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical system in a few days. The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial intensity. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These swells are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 171443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 28 4(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 35 22(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA SOCORRO 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 2 8(10) 25(35) 12(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 2 4( 6) 13(19) 13(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 14:43:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:22:32 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 171443 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 ...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 109.0W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California later today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi