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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF A LARGE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern and central Plains, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A few tornadoes could occur across the northern High Plains region. Isolated severe may also be noted across the lower Ohio Valley and parts of the southern middle Atlantic. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Plains... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Despite the axis of a broad upper ridge extending from NM into CO/WY, considerable mid-level moisture is evident in water vapor imagery along this corridor. Large scale forcing will be weak over the central/northern Rockies, but model guidance is in strong agreement that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop from northeast CO into eastern WY/MT. These storms will build eastward during the evening into the Dakotas/NE/KS. Supercell storm structures are expected, capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are possible as well. Storms may persist the longest over the northern Plains, with activity spreading into western MN overnight. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic... Latest surface analysis shows a weak warm front extending from northeast MO into parts of IL/IN/OH. Dewpoints along and south of the boundary range from the 50s over OH to the 70s over MO. Pockets of daytime heating along this corridor, coupled with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will likely be sufficient for a few thunderstorms to develop and track rather quickly eastward. While confidence in the details of the convective evolution are low, there are two areas where the risk seems high enough to maintain SLGT risk. The first area of concern is over portions of VA/NC. A relatively moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today in this region. Morning clouds are expected to give way to afternoon heating/destabilization and the development of at least isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization and perhaps a supercell or two. Locally damaging winds are the main threat through the early evening. Another area of concern is over parts of MO/IL/IN/KY. Hot and humid conditions will result in a very unstable air mass with afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but a capping inversion limits confidence in convective initiation. Winds aloft are favorable in this region for rotating and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Model guidance varies considerably regarding the timing and placement of storms today and tonight, but given the conditional risk, will maintain the ongoing SLGT risk with few changes. ...KS/MO/AR/TN... A cluster of thunderstorms had developed in the pre-dawn hours over parts of NE. This activity is poorly handled in the model guidance. Given the favorable downstream air mass and rapid expansion on IR satellite imagery, there is some concern that this cluster will persist and track across northeast KS into MO. Therefore have expanded the SLGT risk to areas ahead of the storms. Please see MCD #1127 for further details. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. ..Hart/Broyles.. 06/12/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico is producing a more concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday
while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Off the coast of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next few days
south or southwest off the coast of Central America. Subsequent
gradual development of this system is possible as it moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 11 14:02:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 11 14:02:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES... CORRECTED HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop from the northern Rockies into the middle and lower Missouri Valley Saturday into Saturday night. Damaging winds and hail will be most likely. An isolated tornado is possible over the middle Missouri Valley and vicinity. ...IA/NE/MO/KS... A broad upper ridge is centered over the four-corners region today, with the belt of stronger westerlies extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest. A cold front currently over the Dakotas will sag southeastward into eastern NE and northern IA by mid-afternoon, where a very warm and humid air mass will be present. Afternoon MLCAPE values over 2500 J/kg are expected, resulting in scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the front. Activity will track southward into western MO and eastern KS during the evening before weakening after dark. Initial storms over NE/IA will likely be supercellular with concerns for very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. As the storms track southward, upscale organization into a bowing MCS is expected with an increasing risk of wind damage. ...MT/SD... Strong westerly flow aloft will overlay the northern Plains today, while a weak cold front sags southward across MT. Pockets of daytime heating will lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80s from southern MT into SD, with dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form over the mountains of western MT and develop/move eastward along the front during the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest only marginal CAPE will develop, but given the strong winds aloft and considerable vertical shear, a few supercell storms are expected capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may be rather isolated, but may persist much of the evening and track quickly eastward into western/central SD. ..Hart.. 06/11/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing some disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance for the Cypress Mill Road Fire in Blanco County on the afternoon of Tuesday, June 7th. TAMFS crews are in unified command with local resources. Resources, including heavy equipment and engines were redirected from nearby Lincoln Smith Fire. Excessive heat, high winds, and critically low live fuel moisture contributed to active fire behavior. 5 structures were directly threatened and saved.

MD 1113 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342... FOR NORTHEAST LA...SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Areas affected...northeast LA...southwest MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342... Valid 101521Z - 101645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342 continues. SUMMARY...The highest threat for strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) and associated wind damage will likely exist with the bow-shaped portion of the squall line as it moves south-southeastward into southwest MS through 12pm CDT. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an MCS over the lower MS Valley this morning. A continued south-southeastward surge in the squall line has resulted in a bow-shaped inflection, where the risk for damaging gusts will likely concentrate over the next 1-2 hours. The airmass south-southeast of the bow has warmed in the lower 80s F (as of 10am CDT), and additional heating into the mid 80s will occur prior to the arrival of the squall line. The steepening of low-level lapse rates plus a water-loading component to the thunderstorms, will facilitate the efficient transfer of strong to locally severe gusts to the surface. ..Smith.. 06/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32219187 31239108 31339056 32409118 32219187 Read more

WW 0341 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW TXK TO 25 SW LLQ TO 40 E PBF. ..SMITH..06/10/22 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-041-043-101500- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY DESHA DREW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0342 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 342 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..06/10/22 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-027-073-091-139-101600- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER UNION LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123-127- 101600- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION VERNON WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 342 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 101350Z - 102000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 342 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 850 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Central and northern Louisiana Central Mississippi Northeast and east-central Texas * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 850 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch area through early afternoon posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Shreveport LA to 105 miles east northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with an accompanying damaging wind risk are expected across parts of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast vicinity, mainly this morning into the afternoon. ...AR/LA/MS/AL/FL... A large and persistent MCS that affected OK overnight is beginning to re-intensify over southern AR. These storms will track southeastward across the ArkLaMiss region, where at least some daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s will be present. Low and mid-level wind fields are not particularly strong, but given the substantial mesoscale organization of this MCS, there will be a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps brief QLCS tornadoes along the leading edge of the storms. The activity is expected to track all the way to the Gulf Coast by early evening, ending the severe threat. ..Hart/Broyles.. 06/10/2022 Read more

826
ABPZ20 KNHC 101138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the system meanders off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

826
ABPZ20 KNHC 101138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the system meanders off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Katy is in stage 1 drought conditions due to extreme heat and a lack of rain. Residents are asked to conserve water. Katy Times (Texas), June 8, 2022

A horse rescue in Amarillo is seeking help in paying for hay and feed costs as the region endures exceptional drought, which has dried up water supplies and caused widespread crop and pasture losses. Drought means that the horses cannot graze in the pasture for the first time in ten years. The rescue began buying hay in May and had to buy hay for June also. KDFA-TV Newschannel 10 (Amarillo, Texas), June 10, 2022

The new emergency water restrictions took effect in San Diego on June 10 stemming from the orders from the State Water Resources Control Board direction in May about Level 2 water restrictions. Landscape watering is limited to three or fewer days per week between certain hours. FOX 5 San Diego (Calif.), June 9, 2022

A shortage of the chili peppers used to produce Sriracha hot sauce were in short supply, so the company that produces the famous sauce will suspend sales over the summer. Customers learned in an April 19 email that all orders submitted after that date would be fulfilled after Labor Day. Peppers used in the sauce are grown in California, New Mexico and Mexico, and weather conditions were deepening the chili shortage. Associated Press News (New York), June 9, 2022

Gov. Spencer Cox on April 21 issued a State of Emergency due to “dire drought conditions” affecting Utah. The announcement activated the Drought Response Committee and increased monitoring and reporting efforts. The snowpack was 25% below normal, and 95% of the state’s water supply comes from snowpack. As of April 21, nineteen of Utah’s largest 45 reservoirs were below 55% of available capacity, with overall statewide storage at just 59%. This time last year, the reservoirs were near 67% of capacity. ABC4 (Salt Lake City, Utah), April 21, 2022