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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here, guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here, guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here, guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here, guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here, guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here, guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning. This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas. Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast. ...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector, particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Coastal Carolinas... Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given the limited spatial extent of this region and the general uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning. This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas. Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast. ...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector, particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Coastal Carolinas... Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given the limited spatial extent of this region and the general uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning. This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas. Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast. ...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector, particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Coastal Carolinas... Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given the limited spatial extent of this region and the general uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning. This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas. Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast. ...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector, particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Coastal Carolinas... Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given the limited spatial extent of this region and the general uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning. This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas. Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast. ...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector, particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Coastal Carolinas... Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given the limited spatial extent of this region and the general uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and current dry/windy conditions. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions in southwest Texas and along the Sierra Front. Locally elevated conditions are also possible in the Appalachians from Tennessee-North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia border as southeast winds strengthen with some downslope enhancement ahead of precipitation Wednesday night. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more