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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Friday afternoon as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Weak lapse rates and a lack of richer low-level moisture will result in only modest instability, but strong forcing ahead of the approaching trough should permit for some stronger storms to develop Friday afternoon. A well-mixed, inverted-v type thermodynamic profile will support some gusty winds. However, the lack of stronger lower tropospheric flow or greater instability will likely preclude a more widespread damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, if greater instability appears possible, severe probabilities may eventually be warranted. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Friday afternoon as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Weak lapse rates and a lack of richer low-level moisture will result in only modest instability, but strong forcing ahead of the approaching trough should permit for some stronger storms to develop Friday afternoon. A well-mixed, inverted-v type thermodynamic profile will support some gusty winds. However, the lack of stronger lower tropospheric flow or greater instability will likely preclude a more widespread damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, if greater instability appears possible, severe probabilities may eventually be warranted. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Friday afternoon as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Weak lapse rates and a lack of richer low-level moisture will result in only modest instability, but strong forcing ahead of the approaching trough should permit for some stronger storms to develop Friday afternoon. A well-mixed, inverted-v type thermodynamic profile will support some gusty winds. However, the lack of stronger lower tropospheric flow or greater instability will likely preclude a more widespread damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, if greater instability appears possible, severe probabilities may eventually be warranted. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and hail may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Rockies into the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Recent satellite imagery reveals a broad shortwave trough currently moving through southern ID and northern NV/UT. This shortwave trough and accompanying cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, progressing across WY and northern CO. Modest buoyancy, fostered mainly by cooling mid-level temperatures, is anticipated across WY and adjacent parts of northern CO as the shortwave trough progresses through. Thunderstorm development is expected as the large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough interacts with this buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will accompany this shortwave trough as well, with the resulting increase in vertical shear supporting the potential for a few more organized/persistent storms. Initially more cellular development across the higher terrain could pose a risk for isolated hail, particularly across south-central WY and north-central CO where the best overlap between the stronger shear and cold mid-level temperatures is expected. Damaging wind gusts are possible as well, particularly as the storms reach the lower elevations of central High Plains where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast ND, with weak troughing extending southwestward from this low in east-central CO. The primary cold front is west of this surface trough, extending from the low over southeast ND into more of northwest SD and adjacent northeast WY. The surface low is forecast to progress east-southeastward throughout the day, reaching south-central MN by late tonight. The attendant cold front is expected to push southward during the same period, progressing through much of NE by early Thursday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development along the surface trough during the afternoon and evening. A few isolated storms are possible during the evening behind the front as the shortwave trough ejects out into the central Plains. Additional thunderstorm development is expected overnight/early Thursday morning across the Upper MS Valley, with some isolated hail possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and hail may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Rockies into the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Recent satellite imagery reveals a broad shortwave trough currently moving through southern ID and northern NV/UT. This shortwave trough and accompanying cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, progressing across WY and northern CO. Modest buoyancy, fostered mainly by cooling mid-level temperatures, is anticipated across WY and adjacent parts of northern CO as the shortwave trough progresses through. Thunderstorm development is expected as the large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough interacts with this buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will accompany this shortwave trough as well, with the resulting increase in vertical shear supporting the potential for a few more organized/persistent storms. Initially more cellular development across the higher terrain could pose a risk for isolated hail, particularly across south-central WY and north-central CO where the best overlap between the stronger shear and cold mid-level temperatures is expected. Damaging wind gusts are possible as well, particularly as the storms reach the lower elevations of central High Plains where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast ND, with weak troughing extending southwestward from this low in east-central CO. The primary cold front is west of this surface trough, extending from the low over southeast ND into more of northwest SD and adjacent northeast WY. The surface low is forecast to progress east-southeastward throughout the day, reaching south-central MN by late tonight. The attendant cold front is expected to push southward during the same period, progressing through much of NE by early Thursday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development along the surface trough during the afternoon and evening. A few isolated storms are possible during the evening behind the front as the shortwave trough ejects out into the central Plains. Additional thunderstorm development is expected overnight/early Thursday morning across the Upper MS Valley, with some isolated hail possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 09/04/2024 Read more