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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No forecast changes are required, and the previous forecast (outlined below) remains on track. ..Moore.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No forecast changes are required, and the previous forecast (outlined below) remains on track. ..Moore.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No forecast changes are required, and the previous forecast (outlined below) remains on track. ..Moore.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No forecast changes are required, and the previous forecast (outlined below) remains on track. ..Moore.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. is expected Wednesday, as a central U.S. trough advances eastward across the Plains through the day, and then into the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest/Tennessee Valley area overnight. As this occurs, a weakening surface cold front will likewise cross central portions of the country, extending from the Midwest to the central Gulf Coast area by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi Valley area... Rich low-level Gulf moisture is forecast to linger over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area Wednesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak lapse rates aloft will limit surface-based instability, and meanwhile stronger flow aloft will remain farther north -- across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Still, slightly enhanced low-level flow is expected -- in part related to remnants of Rafael. The veering/increasing low-level winds with height may support transient rotation in a few of the longer-lived updrafts, and thus low-probability potential for a brief/weak tornado or two, or a strong wind gust, remains evident. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. is expected Wednesday, as a central U.S. trough advances eastward across the Plains through the day, and then into the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest/Tennessee Valley area overnight. As this occurs, a weakening surface cold front will likewise cross central portions of the country, extending from the Midwest to the central Gulf Coast area by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi Valley area... Rich low-level Gulf moisture is forecast to linger over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area Wednesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak lapse rates aloft will limit surface-based instability, and meanwhile stronger flow aloft will remain farther north -- across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Still, slightly enhanced low-level flow is expected -- in part related to remnants of Rafael. The veering/increasing low-level winds with height may support transient rotation in a few of the longer-lived updrafts, and thus low-probability potential for a brief/weak tornado or two, or a strong wind gust, remains evident. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. is expected Wednesday, as a central U.S. trough advances eastward across the Plains through the day, and then into the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest/Tennessee Valley area overnight. As this occurs, a weakening surface cold front will likewise cross central portions of the country, extending from the Midwest to the central Gulf Coast area by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi Valley area... Rich low-level Gulf moisture is forecast to linger over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area Wednesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak lapse rates aloft will limit surface-based instability, and meanwhile stronger flow aloft will remain farther north -- across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Still, slightly enhanced low-level flow is expected -- in part related to remnants of Rafael. The veering/increasing low-level winds with height may support transient rotation in a few of the longer-lived updrafts, and thus low-probability potential for a brief/weak tornado or two, or a strong wind gust, remains evident. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. is expected Wednesday, as a central U.S. trough advances eastward across the Plains through the day, and then into the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest/Tennessee Valley area overnight. As this occurs, a weakening surface cold front will likewise cross central portions of the country, extending from the Midwest to the central Gulf Coast area by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi Valley area... Rich low-level Gulf moisture is forecast to linger over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area Wednesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak lapse rates aloft will limit surface-based instability, and meanwhile stronger flow aloft will remain farther north -- across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Still, slightly enhanced low-level flow is expected -- in part related to remnants of Rafael. The veering/increasing low-level winds with height may support transient rotation in a few of the longer-lived updrafts, and thus low-probability potential for a brief/weak tornado or two, or a strong wind gust, remains evident. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Synopsis... Some deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. is expected Wednesday, as a central U.S. trough advances eastward across the Plains through the day, and then into the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest/Tennessee Valley area overnight. As this occurs, a weakening surface cold front will likewise cross central portions of the country, extending from the Midwest to the central Gulf Coast area by the end of the period. ...Lower Mississippi Valley area... Rich low-level Gulf moisture is forecast to linger over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area Wednesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak lapse rates aloft will limit surface-based instability, and meanwhile stronger flow aloft will remain farther north -- across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Still, slightly enhanced low-level flow is expected -- in part related to remnants of Rafael. The veering/increasing low-level winds with height may support transient rotation in a few of the longer-lived updrafts, and thus low-probability potential for a brief/weak tornado or two, or a strong wind gust, remains evident. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z There was a small expansion of the Elevated area on the southern/ocean facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges in southern California based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Chances of light rain are possible on the western and northern periphery of the Elevated area today/tonight, which may cause future changes to the outlook. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z There was a small expansion of the Elevated area on the southern/ocean facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges in southern California based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Chances of light rain are possible on the western and northern periphery of the Elevated area today/tonight, which may cause future changes to the outlook. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z There was a small expansion of the Elevated area on the southern/ocean facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges in southern California based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Chances of light rain are possible on the western and northern periphery of the Elevated area today/tonight, which may cause future changes to the outlook. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z There was a small expansion of the Elevated area on the southern/ocean facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges in southern California based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Chances of light rain are possible on the western and northern periphery of the Elevated area today/tonight, which may cause future changes to the outlook. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z There was a small expansion of the Elevated area on the southern/ocean facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges in southern California based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Chances of light rain are possible on the western and northern periphery of the Elevated area today/tonight, which may cause future changes to the outlook. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more