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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should exit the Lower to Mid-Atlantic Coast on D4/Thursday, with amplification discrepancies from D3 persisting. The 00Z ECMWF appears to be the remaining holdout of the deterministic guidance for a low-probability severe threat in the northeast Gulf Coast vicinity. Still, even it suggests low-level flow should both decrease and become veered through the day, where rich low-level moisture exists. Instability appears likely to be meager and overall severe potential appears low. The next broad mid/upper trough should progress into the West by D5/Friday. Guidance appears to be coalescing towards two distinct shortwave impulses evolving within this longwave pattern. The lead one is progged to track northeast into the northern Great Plains and then pivot east across the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a basal shortwave impulse should become established off the southern CA coast. This may gradually move east over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico late in the period. Guidance continues to differ with the degree of continental airmass intrusion into the northern Gulf, in the wake of the shortwave trough departing the East on D4. Overall trends and likelihood of surface ridging persisting across parts of the Gulf Coast suggest that returning moisture will probably be of low quality in advance of the north-central states wave. However, this may yield multiple days of return flow and an increasingly moist warm sector becoming established over the southern Great Plains by D8/Monday. SPC GEFS-based ML guidance has trended down to a 2 percent probability for D6/Saturday, after depicting a 15 percent area yesterday. It has instead, increased probabilities to 15 percent on D7/Sunday. Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance has decreased probabilities for D7 from 10 percent yesterday to 5 percent today. Both of these are 5 percent or less on D8, when the ECMWF ensemble mean would be more indicative of 15 percent potential. Given the lack of consistency, a severe weather highlight for D7 or D8 appears premature but bears watching in later cycles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should exit the Lower to Mid-Atlantic Coast on D4/Thursday, with amplification discrepancies from D3 persisting. The 00Z ECMWF appears to be the remaining holdout of the deterministic guidance for a low-probability severe threat in the northeast Gulf Coast vicinity. Still, even it suggests low-level flow should both decrease and become veered through the day, where rich low-level moisture exists. Instability appears likely to be meager and overall severe potential appears low. The next broad mid/upper trough should progress into the West by D5/Friday. Guidance appears to be coalescing towards two distinct shortwave impulses evolving within this longwave pattern. The lead one is progged to track northeast into the northern Great Plains and then pivot east across the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a basal shortwave impulse should become established off the southern CA coast. This may gradually move east over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico late in the period. Guidance continues to differ with the degree of continental airmass intrusion into the northern Gulf, in the wake of the shortwave trough departing the East on D4. Overall trends and likelihood of surface ridging persisting across parts of the Gulf Coast suggest that returning moisture will probably be of low quality in advance of the north-central states wave. However, this may yield multiple days of return flow and an increasingly moist warm sector becoming established over the southern Great Plains by D8/Monday. SPC GEFS-based ML guidance has trended down to a 2 percent probability for D6/Saturday, after depicting a 15 percent area yesterday. It has instead, increased probabilities to 15 percent on D7/Sunday. Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance has decreased probabilities for D7 from 10 percent yesterday to 5 percent today. Both of these are 5 percent or less on D8, when the ECMWF ensemble mean would be more indicative of 15 percent potential. Given the lack of consistency, a severe weather highlight for D7 or D8 appears premature but bears watching in later cycles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should exit the Lower to Mid-Atlantic Coast on D4/Thursday, with amplification discrepancies from D3 persisting. The 00Z ECMWF appears to be the remaining holdout of the deterministic guidance for a low-probability severe threat in the northeast Gulf Coast vicinity. Still, even it suggests low-level flow should both decrease and become veered through the day, where rich low-level moisture exists. Instability appears likely to be meager and overall severe potential appears low. The next broad mid/upper trough should progress into the West by D5/Friday. Guidance appears to be coalescing towards two distinct shortwave impulses evolving within this longwave pattern. The lead one is progged to track northeast into the northern Great Plains and then pivot east across the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a basal shortwave impulse should become established off the southern CA coast. This may gradually move east over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico late in the period. Guidance continues to differ with the degree of continental airmass intrusion into the northern Gulf, in the wake of the shortwave trough departing the East on D4. Overall trends and likelihood of surface ridging persisting across parts of the Gulf Coast suggest that returning moisture will probably be of low quality in advance of the north-central states wave. However, this may yield multiple days of return flow and an increasingly moist warm sector becoming established over the southern Great Plains by D8/Monday. SPC GEFS-based ML guidance has trended down to a 2 percent probability for D6/Saturday, after depicting a 15 percent area yesterday. It has instead, increased probabilities to 15 percent on D7/Sunday. Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance has decreased probabilities for D7 from 10 percent yesterday to 5 percent today. Both of these are 5 percent or less on D8, when the ECMWF ensemble mean would be more indicative of 15 percent potential. Given the lack of consistency, a severe weather highlight for D7 or D8 appears premature but bears watching in later cycles. Read more